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An unusually dense seismic swarm rattled the Sea of Marmara off Istanbul's coastline over the past 24 hours, with authorities recording 32 tremors in the region, the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) reported.
The earthquakes were recorded between August 19 and 20, with magnitudes ranging from 1.1 to 3.2. The strongest tremor, measuring 3.2, struck at 5:43 p.m. local time (2:43 p.m. GMT) on Wednesday.
The sequence of tremors began accelerating Wednesday evening. In addition to the primary 3.2-magnitude event, the agency recorded a 2.6-magnitude earthquake at 7:17 p.m., a 2.5-magnitude tremor at 8:58 p.m., and a 1.9-magnitude quake at 10:51 p.m.
The seismic activity persisted throughout the night. From midnight until 8:18 a.m. Thursday, the region experienced another 21 distinct tremors. A 2.6-magnitude event occurred at 12:41 a.m., followed by three separate 2.5-magnitude earthquakes at 2:49 a.m., 3:33 a.m., and 3:45 a.m.
The early morning hours produced two additional notable shudders, a 2.8-magnitude tremor at 4:31 a.m. and a 2.9-magnitude quake at 5:40 a.m.
Authorities continued detecting smaller micro-quakes throughout the remainder of the day, with magnitudes ranging between 1.1 and 2.5. The focal depths of the tremors generally varied between 7 and 17 kilometers, according to AFAD.
No casualties or structural damage have been reported.
The recent swarm comes against a backdrop of long-standing seismic concern for Istanbul. The city of over 16 million people sits perilously close to the North Anatolian Fault Zone, which runs beneath the Sea of Marmara.
Scientists have long warned that the fault is capable of producing a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake, with probability estimates for the coming decades hovering around 40%-60%.
Assessing the recent tremors, Professor Ovgun Ahmet Ercan urged the public not to panic over the quakes, warning that earthquake forecasting cannot be based solely on the number of small quakes.
As for timing, Ercan pointed to the earliest possible date of 2045, with 2075 as the most likely window, though he acknowledged the event could be delayed until 2150.
Geology professor Okan Tuysuz struck a cautious note on interpreting the current activity. "Every major earthquake is followed by aftershocks, but not every major earthquake is preceded by foreshocks," he said.
"Whether an earthquake or a series of earthquakes is a foreshock is only understood after a major event follows." He described the micro-tremors on the Adalar fault as merely indicating the fault is active, adding, "We will wait and see."
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