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A new public opinion survey by GENAR Research reveals that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has reclaimed the lead in voter preference, even as the public remains deeply pessimistic about the country's economic future. Public trust in the economy kept shrinking due to the inflationary pressures and high costs, the survey found.
The results, shared by pro-government journalist Abdulkadir Selvi in his column for Hurriyet, come amid a busy political agenda dominated by the "terror-free Türkiye" peace process and ongoing corruption cases against opposition figures. The survey firm GENAR is known for its close ties to the Turkish government.
According to the research, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party ranks first with 34% of the vote, while the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) follows closely at 32.2%.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) holds 10.7%, and the government's coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is polling at 8.1%.
Analyzing the trends, Selvi noted that the CHP had risen to the top spot in polls following the detention of former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19. However, the opposition party fell behind the AK Party again during the summer months.
Selvi emphasized that while the AK Party has regained the lead, but is unable to widen the gap due to ongoing economic hardships.
The poll also defied expectations regarding the "terror-free Türkiye" process. While there was an anticipation that nationalist voters would react negatively to the talks with the PKK, causing MHP's votes to drop, Selvi reported that MHP has maintained its vote share.
Additionally, the DEM Party, a key supporter of the process, saw an increase in its votes.
The survey highlighted a stark contrast between political support and economic confidence. When asked about their expectations for 2026, 64% of participants said the economy would get "worse," while only 23.2% believed it would get "better."
Trust in the economic management is at rock bottom, with 65.5% of respondents stating they either "do not trust" or "do not trust at all" the current administration's handling of the economy.
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