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A new public opinion study on Türkiye’s foreign policy and shifting Middle East dynamics shows that public expectations toward foreign policy are often more demanding than the state’s current approach, particularly on regional conflicts, national interests, and value-based diplomacy.
The report, Changing Balances in the Middle East and Perceptions and Approaches Toward Turkish Foreign Policy 2025, was prepared by IstanPol as part of its Foreign Policy Program.
The study is based on face-to-face interviews with 2,000 participants across 21 provinces and 56 districts, as well as in-depth focus group discussions conducted in five cities, aiming to capture how Turkish society perceives foreign policy priorities and regional developments.
According to the report, public opinion frequently takes a firmer and more critical stance than official foreign policy positions.
While respondents generally acknowledge Türkiye’s active role in regional affairs, they also express dissatisfaction with what they see as inconsistencies between declared principles and actual policy choices.
On Syria, many participants believe Türkiye has been influential in shaping developments following the civil war.
However, the report shows that public opinion is divided over the continuation of Türkiye’s military presence, revealing a level of debate and scrutiny that goes beyond the stability of state policy.
Some 44.2% of respondents support maintaining troops in the country, reflecting concerns over national security and border stability, while 41.4% oppose continued military deployment, and 7.8% remain undecided.
This division reflects broader public questioning of long-term commitments and costs, even when official policy remains consistent.
The report identifies one of the clearest gaps between public expectations and state policy in perceptions of Türkiye’s stance on Israel and Palestine.
While respondents largely support Türkiye’s rhetoric in defense of Palestine, many view the continuation of economic and trade relations with Israel as incompatible with this discourse.
In a statement in May 2023, the Turkish Trade Ministry announced that the country cut all trade relations with Israel. The ministry stated that 'the claims that Türkiye is still trading with Israel are based on lies.'
The findings suggest that public opinion applies stricter standards than the state in assessing coherence between rhetoric and action.
Across political and ideological lines, respondents emphasized national security and national interest as the primary drivers of foreign policy.
The report notes that many participants believe foreign policy decisions should be more assertive and more clearly centered on Türkiye’s strategic interests.
At the same time, a significant portion of respondents argued that foreign policy performance could improve under different political leadership.
This view indicates that public opinion does not passively accept government policy but evaluates it against its own benchmarks, often concluding that expectations are not fully met.
The report underlines that foreign policy is no longer perceived as a purely technical or elite-driven domain.
Instead, public attitudes are shaped by identity, values, leadership perceptions, and domestic political narratives.
As a result, the public has become less tolerant of pragmatic compromises and more demanding of value-based and interest-driven positions.
According to the analysis, foreign policy debates increasingly overlap with domestic political competition, turning public opinion into an arena where state actions are closely scrutinized and contested.
In several issue areas, the report finds that public expectations appear to move faster than state policy, creating a persistent gap between society and decision-makers.
The report concludes that as regional instability continues and power balances in the Middle East evolve, the tension between public expectations and state practice is likely to remain a defining feature of Türkiye’s foreign policy landscape.
Rather than simply following official narratives, Turkish public opinion actively challenges and evaluates foreign policy choices, often demanding tougher, more coherent, and more principled positions than those currently pursued by the state.
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