Türkiye faces sharp fertility decline as 59 provinces become ‘very old’

Türkiye is facing a deepening demographic crisis marked by falling birth rates, rapid population aging, and a growing number of childless households, according to data announced by Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas.

Speaking at a meeting with media representatives at the Darulaceze Social Life City in Istanbul, Minister Goktas said Türkiye’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.48, well below the population replacement level of 2.1, signaling serious long-term risks for the country’s social and economic structure.

Provinces on 'red alert'

Goktas revealed that over the past decade, the number of provinces with fertility rates above the replacement threshold had fallen sharply from 29 to just 10.

Meanwhile, provinces with a fertility rate of **1.5 or below—considered a “red alert” level—surged from only Edirne in 2014 to 55 provinces in 2024.

In addition, 59 of Türkiye’s 81 provinces are now classified as “very old,” a category based on the proportion of elderly residents. This number has tripled since 2007, when only 19 provinces fell into that group.

Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas met with representatives of press organizations at the Darulaceze Social Life City. Istanbul, Türkiye, January 7, 2025. (AA Photo)

Households without children on the rise

Highlighting changing family structures, Goktas said that 57.2 percent of households in Türkiye have no children, while both marriage and parenthood are being postponed.

• The average age of first-time mothers rose from 25.8 in 2001 to 29.3 in 2024.
• The average age of first-time fathers increased from 26 to 28 over the same period.

Population could shrink dramatically

According to United Nations projections cited by the minister, if current trends continue, Türkiye’s population could fall to as low as 25 million by 2100. A more optimistic projection by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) still foresees a decline to around 54 million.

“This is not just a demographic issue; it is a matter of our future and national security,” Goktas said.

New family policies on the way

The minister announced that the government is preparing a comprehensive, long-term policy framework addressing family structure, population dynamics, and social support. The plan is expected to be unveiled in February, with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Among the key proposals:

• Maternity leave to be extended from 16 weeks to 24 weeks
• Paternity leave to be doubled from 5 days to 10 days
  These measures would apply to both public and private sector employees, pending parliamentary approval.

Goktas also highlighted the impact of the Family and Youth Fund, launched nationwide during the government-declared “Year of the Family.” So far:

• 68,763 couples have qualified for support
• ₺8.46 billion has been distributed
• 4,765 babies have been born to beneficiaries of the program

Additionally, under birth assistance programs, 721,000 children have received financial support totaling ₺8.7 billion.

January 08, 2026 11:26 AM GMT+03:00