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One of the most significant global political issues today is the issue of refugees. In Europe, we see the rise of the far-right; in the United States, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are a source of fear. The discussion surrounding refugees almost always includes calls for widespread deportations.
Yet the Turkish story stands out as a success case—one achieved without mass deportations.
In 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his plan for refugee returns: establishing a safe zone in northern Syria and addressing the root causes of refugee flows. When the Turkish president presented his vision, including at a United Nations General Assembly session, many in the international community harshly criticized Türkiye. But the Turkish strategy has borne fruit.
Erdogan recently announced that since 2016, 1.29 million Syrian refugees have returned to Syria. Moreover, he emphasized that any refugee who wishes to stay in Türkiye is free to do so.
This outcome is a valuable lesson that deserves careful study. It demonstrates that blaming refugees for their presence in a host country is misguided.
The blame should not fall on the victims but on the causes that created the migration in the first place. Even when a political leader consistently signals that refugees are welcome to remain, many refugees will return home—once they can do so safely and sustainably.
1 min read
In 2016, Türkiye began establishing a safe zone along the Turkish–Syrian border. Following its creation, more than 700,000 refugees returned to Syria.
Excluding some missteps that arose amid growing anti-refugee sentiment and opposition propaganda within Türkiye, almost all of these returns were voluntary. However, at a certain point, the pace of returns began to slow.
The established safe zone was not deep enough to attract more returns, and despite Türkiye’s willingness to expand it, both Russia and the United States joined hands to block Türkiye’s efforts.
Then, in December 2024, a turning point arrived. The Assad regime was toppled, and a new government in Syria was established. With the fall of the regime, the root cause of the refugee crisis was finally eliminated.
Since then—despite widespread destruction and a devastated economy in Syria—more than 550,000 refugees residing in Türkiye have returned home within just 11 months. Throughout this period, Türkiye, alongside Qatar, remained among the only two nations steadfastly supporting the Syrian opposition.
Türkiye’s success offers a clear lesson: If you do not want refugees in your country, address the root causes of migration. And if those causes cannot be immediately resolved, create temporary safe havens that serve as buffers until the day those root causes can be eliminated.
9 min read
