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In the lead-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the Central Intelligence Agency assessed that if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to two sources briefed on the intelligence, Reuters reports.
The assessments, produced over the past two weeks, examined potential developments in Iran following a U.S. intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic, which has become a stated objective for Washington.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said the reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty. The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is an elite military force tasked with protecting Shiite clerical rule in Iran.
President Donald Trump has for weeks signaled that the U.S. is interested in regime change in Iran but has not detailed Washington’s view on who might lead the country.
In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a “terrorist regime” and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying U.S. military strikes would set the stage for an uprising.
The U.S. and Israeli assault followed weeks of deliberations within the U.S. government over whether to strike Iran after deadly protests erupted there in December.
U.S. officials had sought in recent weeks to secure a nuclear agreement with Tehran in an effort to avert intervention. Talks held in Geneva did not result in a deal.
During a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed senior congressional lawmakers known as the Gang of Eight that a U.S. operation would likely proceed, though Trump could change his decision, particularly if nuclear negotiations succeeded.
On Friday night, Rubio notified the Gang of Eight that the operation to attack Iran was likely to begin within hours but reiterated that Trump could still alter the course, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
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