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Iran is pushing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping contingent on further U.S. escalation in the war, Bloomberg reported, citing European officials.
Oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 as the Israeli military said on Monday it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen toward Eilat, the Houthis' first confirmed involvement in the Iran conflict.
European officials familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Iran is urging the Yemen-based Houthis to prepare for more aggressive action, including a potential Red Sea shipping campaign, if the U.S. further escalates the war.
Leaders of the Houthis are weighing options for more aggressive action after launching ballistic missiles at Israel over the weekend.
However, there are divisions within the Houthi leadership about how aggressive to be, partly why the group only entered the conflict a month after it began, the officials said.
An extreme faction wants more expansive attacks, while more moderate figures have resisted. The decision to target Israel over the weekend represented a compromise between divided factions.
U.S. and Saudi officials have told European allies they believe the Houthis want to avoid further escalation and attacks on American and Saudi assets for now. "But the longer the war continues, the more likely the Houthis are to target the Red Sea," the officials said.
One official said an attempted U.S. seizure of Kharg Island could prompt the Houthis to expand their attacks.
The Houthis said in a Saturday announcement they would continue military operations until U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, cease, notably stopping short of explicitly threatening Red Sea tankers.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, whose Arabic name means "Gate of Tears," is a narrow maritime corridor approximately 100 kilometers long and 30 kilometers at its tightest point, separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea and linking the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal and Mediterranean Sea.
In 2023, 9.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum liquids passed through the strait, nearly 12% of seaborne-traded oil worldwide, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That flow dropped sharply to approximately 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024 following Houthi attacks on shipping. Flows through the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline fell from 8.8 million to 4.8 million barrels per day during the same period.
The strait is surpassed in volume only by the Strait of Malacca at 24 million barrels per day and the Strait of Hormuz at 21.8 million.
The Houthis' potential re-entry into Red Sea shipping disruption takes on heightened significance because Iran has already effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began in late February.
Saudi Arabia has ramped up crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu as an alternative outlet, a route that passes through the Bab el-Mandeb en route to Asian buyers. Disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb would eliminate that alternative, potentially compounding the oil price shock already underway.
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