Newsletters
Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation within hours of an attack.
According to U.S. intelligence assessments cited by The New York Times and CNN, new findings cast doubt on Pentagon claims that Tehran’s missile capabilities were "overwhelmingly degraded" after five weeks of war.
Iran has also retained a significant number of its missiles and mobile launchers, according to the reports.
While U.S. intelligence agencies have not estimated the number of remaining launchers with high confidence, Iran retains the ability to use its remaining arsenal of ballistic missiles and launchers to attack Israel and other countries in the region, according to American officials briefed on the intelligence.
U.S. intelligence reports describe a pattern in which underground bunkers, caves, or silos appear damaged after strikes but are quickly restored to operational status. Iranian teams have used bulldozers to dig out missile launchers that had been buried, or "corked", by airstrikes, Haaretz reported.
The launchers are then repositioned and fired again.
Iran is also deploying a significant number of decoys, making precise assessments of its actual capabilities difficult.
The United States is not certain how many of the apparent launchers it has destroyed were real. Prewar estimates of Iran's launcher inventory were themselves imprecise.
American intelligence agencies believe Iran is deliberately conserving its remaining launchers by keeping more of them in bunkers and caves, preserving capacity to maintain pressure if the war drags on or to threaten the region after it ends.
The gap between the administration's public statements and classified assessments has become increasingly pronounced.
"Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90%, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has emphasized declining Iranian launch rates. "Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down," Hegseth said Monday.
"Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them," he added.
But intelligence reports indicate the reduced launch tempo reflects Iranian strategy, not destroyed capability.
Three sources familiar with the assessments told CNN that Iran's remaining forces are "still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region."
Despite the claimed degradation, Iran has continued to strike Israel with approximately 20 missiles a day, firing one or two at a time, according to current and former American officials.
A Western official said Friday that Iran was firing 15 to 30 ballistic missiles and 50 to 100 one-way attack drones daily.
Former officials said fractures inside Iran's government have hampered command and control following the killing of senior leaders, making it difficult for Tehran to launch large coordinated salvos. But the sustained daily tempo demonstrates continued capability.
CNN reported that roughly half of Iran's drone capacity, amounting to thousands of units, remains intact. Many of Iran's coastal defense cruise missiles have not been significantly degraded, aligning with the U.S. strategy of not prioritizing coastal military infrastructure despite some maritime targets being struck.
These coastal missiles represent a crucial asset enabling Iran to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively controlled since the war began.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has outlined "severe diminishing" of Iran's missile launch capability as a key war aim. As of Wednesday, U.S. Central Command confirmed American forces have struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran since Operation Epic Fury began Feb. 28.
U.S. and Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,340 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, who headed Iran's National Security Council.
Despite these losses, the intelligence indicates Iran retains a substantial stockpile of missiles along with remaining launch infrastructure.
Set as preferred source
Set as preferred source
6 min read
