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Israeli officials assess that within two to three months, possibly by September, the Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza agreement could declare Hamas in breach of the accord.
The move could give Israel broader freedom to operate in Hamas-held areas and potentially lead to renewed fighting in the strip, according to an Israeli Channel 12 political source.
Separately, Israeli media reported that the Board of Peace held meetings in Greek Cyprus earlier this week to draft a comprehensive post-war plan for Gaza, addressing specific timelines, security arrangements and the future governance structure of the enclave for the first time beyond preliminary discussions.
A political source told Channel 12 that Nikolay Mladenov, the Board of Peace's director-general and the official appointed to oversee implementation of the Gaza agreement, had previously considered declaring Hamas in breach of the deal but held back at mediators' request.
"Mladenov planned to declare Hamas as violating the agreement two months ago, and at the request of the mediators he froze that and gave them time to convince Hamas to comply," the source said.
The source added that if Hamas' conduct does not change in the coming months, a decision could come as early as September.
"From conversations with them, if there is no change in the next two to three months, we are talking about September, Mladenov will declare Hamas as violating the agreement," the source said.
Such a declaration, according to Israeli assessments, would alter the scope of Israel's operations in the strip. If Hamas is declared in breach of the agreement and does not disarm, Israel may return to broader military activity in Gaza.
According to i24NEWS, the plan's first reconstruction phase would target the Tel es-Sultan area west of Rafah. Tens of thousands of Palestinians would be relocated there initially, with temporary residential areas later expanded to accommodate hundreds of thousands more.
The report said infrastructure and land preparation is expected to be completed within three to six months, after which Israeli forces would withdraw from designated areas, referred to as "yellow zones," into which Palestinians would be resettled.
Permanent structures and heavy construction materials would not be used until Hamas is disarmed, the report said. Instead, the plan calls for temporary housing, schools, health facilities and employment opportunities.
According to i24NEWS, the Board of Peace held meetings in the Greek Cyprus at the start of the week with the goal of forming a comprehensive plan for Gaza's post-war period.
The report said participants included members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, Board of Peace advisers, Mladenov in his role as Gaza Peace Council High Representative, and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Citing unnamed sources, i24NEWS reported the meetings marked the first time discussions moved beyond preliminary preparations to address specific timelines, security arrangements, the number of Palestinians to be relocated to new areas and the future governance model for Gaza.
The report said participants reached broad agreement that the "day after" plan should proceed even if Hamas is not disarmed in the near term.
On security arrangements, the report said internal security would be provided by a newly trained Palestinian police force, to be trained in Egypt, alongside an international stabilization force expected to be deployed in the coming months. Israeli forces would maintain a presence in an outer security perimeter, according to the report.
Details on how individuals to be relocated would be selected and how security screening would be conducted had not yet been finalized, i24NEWS reported.
The reconstruction process is expected to span approximately 10 years under the plan, the newspaper reported, without specifying which areas would be covered.
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