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Italy’s parliament votes Thursday on a reform of the country’s electoral law that opposition parties say Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right government has designed to boost its chances of re-election next year.
The proposal would introduce a fully proportional system that guarantees a parliamentary majority to any alliance winning over 42% of the vote.
Italy’s current electoral model combines first-past-the-post and proportional representation, with neither the right nor the left expected to secure an outright parliamentary majority at the next election.
Meloni’s coalition says a new law is needed to bring greater political stability to Italy, but experts warn it could backfire and give the left a clearer path to victory in the 2027 polls.
The electoral reform would “guarantee governability,” Luca Ciriani, minister for parliamentary relations, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
He said it would also benefit voters by requiring parties and coalitions to set out their governing program and name their candidate for prime minister “well before the election.”
That could prove problematic for the center-left, which disagrees on key policy issues and has yet to rally around a single leader.
The opposition has vowed to vote against the reform, which has already cleared the Senate and now needs approval in the lower house.
Chiara Braga, lower-house leader for the main opposition Democratic Party, or PD, told AFP that the proposal “bends democratic rules to serve the interests of those in power.”
Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and its allies hold a parliamentary majority, but tensions have emerged within the coalition ahead of the next general election.
Thursday’s vote will be held by secret ballot, meaning rebel lawmakers could vote against the bill.
Meloni has warned she would resign if the reform fails, although analysts say lawmakers are unlikely to risk triggering an election now.
Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome’s Luiss University, said it was “extremely likely” that the law would be adopted.
“Meloni faces little risk” in the lower-house vote, Orsina said, “but the law creates a completely open competitive landscape, so she does risk losing the election.”
Under the proposed system, an alliance winning more than 42% of the vote would automatically receive a parliamentary majority, gaining an additional 70 seats in the lower house and 35 in the Senate.
Reaching that threshold could prove difficult for either side.
Meloni last month became the leader of the longest-running administration in Italy’s postwar history, but her coalition has been losing support to former army general Roberto Vannacci and his new National Future, or FN, party.
Although Meloni has so far ruled out an alliance with Vannacci, the far-right FN is polling ahead of both Meloni’s allies, the anti-immigrant League, and center-right Forza Italia, and she may yet need him.
According to a recent Ipsos Doxa survey, the center-left coalition could surpass the 42% threshold if it overcomes internal divisions and persuades two small radical parties to join forces.
Meloni’s term officially ends in October 2027, but she could opt to bring elections forward to April or May.
Opposition parties have already vowed to challenge the new electoral law in court before then.
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