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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has fallen to 19 seats, its lowest level since May 2025, according to an opinion poll published Friday, about six weeks before the Oct. 27 general election.
Maariv newspaper, which published the survey, described the result as a “historic collapse” for Netanyahu’s party.
The poll was conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with the Panel4All research platform.
The survey was conducted Sept. 9-10 among 4,329 respondents and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
According to the results, Likud would win 19 seats if elections were held today, down from 21 in a poll conducted Monday.
Maariv said this marked the party’s weakest showing since May 29, 2025.
By contrast, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remained the largest party in the poll with 25 seats, unchanged from Monday’s survey.
The results came three days after Israeli parties submitted their candidate lists for the Knesset election.
At the bloc level, parties in the current governing coalition would secure 50 seats, while opposition parties would win 58. Arab parties would receive the remaining 12 seats.
A minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government in the 120-member Knesset.
Naftali Bennett’s Yachad party would win 14 seats, one more than in Monday’s poll, while Yair Golan’s Democrats would fall to 10 seats.
Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu would rise by one seat to nine, while the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, led by Yaakov Asher, would receive seven seats.
The religious Shas party, led by Aryeh Deri, would also receive seven seats.
The right-wing Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, would fall to five seats.
The new Amcha Yisrael party, led by Ofer Winter, would pass the electoral threshold and win four seats.
Among Arab parties, the Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, would win seven seats, while the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, would receive five.
Several parties would fail to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, including Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and Avi Maoz’s Noam Yisrael.
A total of 38 lists have registered to run in the upcoming vote, while polls suggest only 13 are likely to win seats.
Most leaders of Jewish parties say they refuse to cooperate with Arab lawmakers to form an alternative government to Netanyahu’s coalition.
The poll also showed Netanyahu continuing to trail his rivals when respondents were asked who was most suitable to serve as prime minister.
Eisenkot led Netanyahu by 12 percentage points, receiving 50% support compared with 38% for Netanyahu.
Bennett also led Netanyahu in the premiership race, receiving 45% support compared with 40% for the incumbent premier.
The election is widely seen as decisive for Netanyahu’s political future, as he faces accusations of corruption, authoritarianism and failure.
Netanyahu has headed the current government since late December 2022, widely described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history.
He is also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip since November 2024.
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