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Türkiye has signaled it will not implement an open-door policy for refugees if Iran's government collapses amid escalating Israeli and U.S. attacks, drawing lessons from its Syrian refugee experience while Iranian elites continue securing Turkish residency and citizenship.
The Turkish government's concern over potential Iranian regime change has been mounting since September, as Israeli strikes initially targeting nuclear infrastructure have expanded to government command structures and security facilities.
Israeli forces reportedly targeted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters and the notorious Evin prison holding political prisoners. Israeli ministers have suggested cooperation with Iranian opposition groups, reinforcing Defense Minister Israel Katz's public statements seeking regime change in Tehran.
The prospect gained further momentum when U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday night, "If the current Iranian regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a regime change???"
Sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that the Turkish government conducted comprehensive studies on potential migration scenarios as early as September, estimating that full-scale war between Israel and Iran could push up to one million Iranian refugees toward the Turkish border.
Türkiye's experience with Syrian refugees has fundamentally altered its approach to migration crises. In 2012, then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu attempted to control Syrian refugee influx by capping numbers at 100,000 and to establish a safe zone in northern Syria. However, refugee numbers quickly surpassed three million in subsequent years.
"If the worst-case scenario were to occur and there was a mass migration from Iran to Türkiye, whether permanent or in transit, Ankara would fulfill its obligations under humanitarian law, but it would not implement an open-door policy," Serhan Afacan, president of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, told Middle East Eye.
A Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Ankara would no longer apply an "open door" policy toward any neighboring country in the event of a refugee wave, despite Iranians currently being able to enter Türkiye without a visa.
Sources from the Turkish defense ministry told journalists last week there is currently no sign of refugee influx into Türkiye. Additional security measures have been implemented along all borders, including with Iran, with no uncontrolled migration reported.
The Turkish Armed Forces are reportedly prepared for all possible scenarios arising from regional developments.
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