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A senior Israeli analyst has claimed that Türkiye is becoming “a much more dangerous factor than Iran,” as tensions between Ankara and Tel Aviv deepen amid Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza.
Eli Carmon, a counterterrorism expert at Reichman University, told Israeli media outlet Ynet that Türkiye’s recent moves in Syria and its support for Palestinian resistance group Hamas factions have raised alarm in Israeli security circles. Despite Türkiye's longstanding support for Hamas' political faction, Türkiye provides no armed support to Hamas in Gaza before or after October 7, 2024.
“There is a possibility of military escalation, so in my opinion, Israel should respond on the political level, because Türkiye is becoming a much more dangerous factor than Iran,” Carmon said, citing Ankara’s moves to establish a military foothold in Syria and its continued backing of Hamas and stance on Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
Türkiye has reportedly initiated steps to deploy Turkish Armed Forces to Syria’s Tiyas air base, also known as T4, and is preparing to station air defense systems there.
The base is expected to provide Türkiye with enhanced aerial control over central Syria and serve as a launch point for intensified operations against Daesh elements still active in the region.
Israeli security officials have voiced concern over growing cooperation between the Türkiye government and Syria.
According to sources speaking to the Jerusalem Post, discussions have intensified over Türkiye’s possible establishment of a military base in Syria, a development Israel sees as a potential threat.
“If a Turkish air base is established in Syria, it would undermine Israel’s freedom of operation,” an Israeli security source said.
Israeli officials have held internal discussions in recent weeks about the implications of deeper Turkish involvement in Syria.
The crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations has worsened in recent months, with diplomatic ties strained over Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Carmon said Türkiye’s exclusion from regional reconstruction plans for Gaza has frustrated Erdogan, prompting renewed efforts to assert influence in Egypt and Syria.
“Erdogan is sending his foreign minister to Cairo to join negotiations over hostage releases,” Carmon said. “But as long as Erdogan remains in power, there will be no real restoration of ties between Israel and Türkiye.”
The Nagel Commission, an Israeli governmental advisory body, has reportedly listed Türkiye as a potential enemy state, reflecting growing concern over Ankara’s regional ambitions.
Carmon added that even if Hamas is expelled from Gaza, its leadership may find refuge in Türkiye, allowing continued operations against Israel from abroad.
Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday said Israel wants to expand its campaign in Gaza and that Ankara will continue working against it.
Türkiye has also banned Israeli-flagged and Israeli-owned vessels from entering its ports and prohibited Turkish-flagged ships from sailing to Israel.
“We have closed our ports to Israeli ships. We do not allow Turkish ships to go to Israeli ports….We do not allow container ships carrying weapons and ammunition to Israel to enter our ports, nor do we allow their aircraft to enter our airspace,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told lawmakers in a televised address Aug. 29.
Since October 2023, Israel has killed over 63,500 Palestinians in Gaza. The military campaign has devastated the enclave, which is facing famine.
In November, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
Israel also faces a genocide case at the ICC over its war in the enclave.
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