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U.S. President Donald Trump may be more inclined to order a major Iran strike if Republicans lose badly in next week’s midterm elections, a U.S. official told Axios, as Qatari mediators held marathon talks in Tehran to revive U.S.-Iran negotiations.
The administration has briefed Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense round of strikes as early as Nov. 4, the day after the elections, three senior Gulf Arab officials told MS NOW.
"If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised, he will do something bold. That’s what everyone is telling the Iranians. Their best shot to get a deal is right now," the U.S. official said.
A White House official told Axios that election results would not factor into Trump’s decisions on Iran.
Qatari mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran on Friday, staying in regular contact with the White House, in an effort to restart direct talks, according to Axios. Discussions are set to continue Saturday in Doha.
“There was positive progress. Talks are still ongoing in an effort to unlock a deal between the U.S. and Iran,” a diplomatic source said.
Talks have stalled over Washington's demand for nuclear concessions and Tehran’s insistence that the U.S. first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow oil sales, a U.S. official said.
Doha is urging Iran to allow U.N. inspectors into its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for some sanctions relief.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are highly skeptical a nuclear deal can be reached with Iran’s current government and favor weakening it further, including with strikes, a U.S. official told Axios.
Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to resume negotiations.
"There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking. We have time, frankly. It’s a war, but it is not a typical war," Trump told reporters Friday.
The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye urged Trump in recent days to allow more time for diplomacy, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying for a joint operation immediately after the election.
Egypt, Türkiye, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have urged Iran to resume talks before the midterms, a regional source said.
Gulf allies are pushing hard to de-escalate, and one Gulf official said they "would not be surprised" if some states pushed back on U.S. strikes from their bases.
Iran has vowed to hit oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain if the U.S. strikes its energy infrastructure.
"We do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist. President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon," a White House official said.
The U.S. has not struck Iran since Sept. 1. A third carrier strike group led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected in the region at the end of November.
About 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of military action in Iran, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.
The prospect of a post-midterm Iran strike hangs over the final days of diplomacy.
The reports come amid heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for global energy shipments.
The U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran on Feb. 28, triggering Iranian retaliation in the region.
Despite subsequent diplomatic efforts and a memorandum signed by Washington and Tehran in June, tensions have persisted over security arrangements and navigation through the strait.
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