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Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro entered the eve of Brazil’s presidential runoff with a slim edge over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in two final polls, though the margins are small enough that neither candidate can claim a clear advantage.
A BTG/Nexus poll put Bolsonaro at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5%, a one-point gap. A separate survey by CNT/MDA, published Saturday by the Brazilian news outlet Poder360, showed Bolsonaro at 50.7% and Lula at 49.3%. The 1.4-percentage-point difference falls within that survey’s margin of error, meaning the result is statistically too close to call.
The CNT/MDA survey, commissioned by the National Transport Confederation, interviewed 2,032 voters from Oct. 21 to 23. One set of figures from the polling put Bolsonaro at 46.3% of voting intentions and Lula at 45%, with 2.9% of voters undecided.
The numbers offer snapshots of voter sentiment rather than forecasts, and their findings should be read in light of each survey’s methodology and margin of error.
The runoff follows a first round held Oct. 4, in which Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, according to Poder360. Neither candidate cleared the threshold of more than half of valid votes needed to win outright, which sent the two top finishers to Sunday’s second round.
The final polls suggest the contest has changed little since then. Bolsonaro’s lead in the first round was under two points, and it remains narrow in the latest surveys.
Lula returned to the presidency in 2023. He previously led Brazil from 2003 to 2010. Bolsonaro is a prominent figure in Brazil’s right-wing movement and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022.
Brazil’s electoral rules call for a second round between the two leading candidates when no one wins more than half of valid votes in the first. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots, which is the basis on which the polling percentages are reported.
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