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Nearly one-third of Americans believe at least one of the three attempts on President Donald Trump's life over the past two years was faked, according to a new poll that reveals deep partisan and generational fractures in how the public processes high-profile political violence.
The survey, conducted by YouGov on behalf of NewsGuard and published Monday, found that 30% of respondents believed at least one of the three incidents was staged, while only 38% said all three were genuine. Across all three events, a majority of Americans, averaging 54% , said either that the attempt was staged or that they were unsure.
The survey covered the July 2024 shooting at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the September 2024 incident at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, and the April 25, 2026 shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner in Washington.
Party affiliation proved to be the strongest predictor of skepticism. 21% of Democrats said they believed all three events were staged, compared with 11% of Independents and 3% of Republicans. Among respondents who considered all three incidents authentic, only 15% were Democrats, versus 47% who were Republicans.
The partisan gap was widest for the Butler, Pennsylvania rally, where a bullet grazed Trump's ear and a local firefighter in attendance was killed. 44% of Democrats called that incident staged, against 7% of Republicans, a 35-point spread that was the largest of any event in the survey.
For the most recent incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, 34% of Democrats and 13% of Republicans said it was staged.
Respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 were consistently more likely than older Americans to describe the incidents as staged.
The generational gap was sharpest for the April 2026 Correspondents' Dinner shooting: 32% of adults under 30 said it was staged, compared with 15% of those 65 and older.
Among respondents who regarded all three incidents as legitimate, only 13% were between 18 and 29 years old.
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