Newsletters
Scientists tracking the Axial Seamount off the Oregon coast say the underwater volcano is now unlikely to erupt this year, with new data pushing the expected timeline into mid to late 2026.
Researchers first warned in late 2023 that the volcano was approaching the same level of ground uplift that preceded its 2015 eruption.
At the time, Oregon State University geophysicist Bill Chadwick and colleagues suggested the volcano could erupt within a year.
They compared the pattern to earlier eruptions that followed periods of high seismic activity and steady ground inflation as magma rose below the seafloor.
That forecast changed several times through 2024 and 2025.
The team recorded rising inflation through late 2024, reaching about 95 percent of the level seen before the 2015 eruption. They later observed a slowdown in uplift in early 2025.
On October 27, Chadwick wrote on the Axial Blog that the volcano needs more time to hit the inflation threshold recorded before the last eruption. “At the current rate of inflation, we won’t get to that higher inflation threshold until mid to late 2026,” he said.
Chadwick noted that Axial behaves much like Iceland’s Krafla volcano, where the amount of uplift needed for an eruption increases by a small amount each cycle.
Scientists estimate that the ground is now about 4 inches higher than just before the 2015 eruption. They believe the volcano may need another 8 inches of uplift before it erupts again.
A magnitude 4.2 earthquake near the Oregon Coast on Wednesday added attention to the region.
The U.S. Geological Survey says the quake struck less than 185 miles from Barview and roughly 200 miles from Axial Seamount.
The earthquake was the third significant event in two weeks, but researchers say it is not connected to the inflation under the volcano.
Chadwick told Daily Mail that these larger quakes originate from the Blanco Fracture Zone, where tectonic plates slide past each other. They differ from the hundreds of tiny quakes that occur directly under Axial and help indicate magma movement.
He said the number of daily earthquakes under the volcano remains relatively low. “There’s still a chance it could erupt by the end of the year. We don’t really know exactly when it will happen, but nothing seems imminent,” he said.
New seismic data suggests that researchers will likely update the eruption window to late 2026, since the ground swelling has not matched the level seen a decade ago.
Axial has recorded intense activity at times. In August, it experienced as many as 2,000 earthquakes in a single day. Current readings show activity well below those levels.
Researchers focus on two key indicators.
Seismic activity
Ground inflation
Chadwick said the threshold for eruption is only an “educated guess,” shaped by past behavior rather than a fixed rule.
Axial Seamount sits on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, about 300 miles off the US West Coast.
Scientists agree the next eruption will not affect people in Oregon, Washington, or California. The volcano is deep underwater, too far from land for any impact on coastal residents or onshore seismic activity.
When the eruption happens, Axial will likely release more than one billion cubic feet of very fluid lava, a scale similar to previous events. Chadwick said the added buildup does not create additional danger. “It’s hard to say what the size of the next eruption will be, but probably not too different from the last few eruptions,” he said.
Chadwick and his colleagues are also testing new physics-based models that analyze decades of monitoring data. The models can recreate previous eruption patterns with high accuracy.
Starting this week, researchers will apply the models to real-time data from Axial Seamount. They plan to publish results only after the next eruption, since the outcome will show whether the method worked.
1 min read
