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German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned Tuesday that Russia could be capable of attacking a NATO member state within the next four years, citing intelligence assessments that indicate Moscow is preparing military options for a potential conflict with the alliance.
Speaking at the Berlin Foreign Policy Forum, Wadephul said the warnings from German intelligence were explicit.
“Our intelligence services are telling us urgently that Russia is at least creating the option of a war against NATO by 2029 at the latest,” he said.
He argued that Russia’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine and described Moscow’s approach as “imperial,” emphasizing that the Kremlin has expanded its military capabilities and accelerated weapons production in recent years.
Wadephul said Russia has “largely geared its economy and society toward war.” He noted that Moscow is recruiting soldiers at a pace exceeding its immediate needs.
“At the same time, Russia is recruiting more soldiers than it currently needs. Almost one additional division is being recruited every month,” he said.
He added that these forces are being built with a clear strategic direction.
“These divisions, without a doubt, have their sights set on us; on the European Union, on NATO,” he said, stressing that the threat Russia poses to Germany “is no longer a distant concern; it is already a reality.”
Wadephul accused Moscow of engaging in hybrid warfare tactics against NATO allies.
He cited airspace violations, sabotage attempts and disinformation campaigns as examples of Russia’s efforts to destabilize member states.
He said these actions form part of a broader strategy aimed at undermining European security and testing the alliance’s resilience.
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