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Russia's main grain industry body warned Friday that escalating drone strikes on ships and port facilities in the Black Sea could soon choke off wheat exports, driving up global prices and threatening famine in some of the world's poorest nations.
The warning from Russia's Union of Grain Exporters and Producers came as both Russia and Ukraine have sharply intensified attacks on each other's agricultural export infrastructure and commercial vessels in recent weeks, sending wheat prices higher and raising alarm among food security analysts.
"The disruption to shipping in the Black Sea caused by Ukrainian attacks on dry cargo vessels and port infrastructure poses a direct threat to global food security," the union said in a statement to Reuters. Though importers have not yet faced a shortage, it cautioned, "the consequences of this crisis will soon affect many countries."
An agricultural market source told Reuters Thursday that a Ukrainian drone strike had inflicted "significant damage" on a major grain export terminal at Russia's port of Taman. The union said Ukraine's "systematic attacks," which it said began in July, risk causing "a complete blockage of export corridors in the Black Sea basin."
Russia's Ministry of Defence said Friday its forces had struck 31 ships linked to the Ukrainian military in the past week, including 23 cargo ships and four bulk carriers.
Ukraine's largest farming union, the UAC, has separately warned in recent weeks that Russian strikes near the southern port of Odesa are restricting Ukrainian exports during a critical harvest period and could ripple through global food supply chains.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday that Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping were themselves threatening global food security and urged European partners to help counter them.
The Russian grain union projected that the shortfall in Russian wheat exports this season could reach 30 to 35 million metric tons, roughly 15 percent of total global wheat trade, a gap it said could not be filled by alternative suppliers.
If current conditions persist, the union forecast that free-on-board wheat prices could climb to between $340 and $370 per ton, with the potential to breach $400, a price surge that it said could unleash food inflation on a scale rivaling the supply disruptions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"A physical shortage of grain will trigger a protracted global crisis," the union warned.
The Middle East and Africa face the greatest exposure, the group said, given their heavy dependence on Black Sea grain supplies. As prices rise, it cautioned, the poorest importing nations may be unable to sustain their purchasing volumes. "In the poorest countries, this will trigger famine," it said.
A United Nations-brokered grain corridor, established in the months after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, had allowed Ukrainian grain shipments to move along the western Black Sea. That arrangement has effectively collapsed in recent weeks under sustained Russian pressure.
A Ukrainian government source told Reuters last week that U.S. and Ukrainian officials were discussing a possible air ceasefire as part of broader peace proposals to present to Moscow. The Kremlin said it was premature to comment on such reports.
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine ranks among the leading agricultural exporters globally. Together, the two countries have historically supplied a substantial share of wheat imported by nations across Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia, making sustained disruption to Black Sea shipping a concern that extends well beyond the immediate theater of war.
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