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United States intelligence agencies believe China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons and has conducted at least one covert explosive test in recent years, according to a CNN report published Saturday, as part of what U.S. officials describe as a broader push to transform its nuclear arsenal into the world’s most technologically advanced.
The U.S. assessment is fueling debate within the intelligence community and beyond over whether Beijing has shifted its take on nuclear strategy, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence findings told CNN.
U.S. officials assess that China’s expanding investment in its nuclear forces is pushing it closer to peer status with Russia and the United States and could yield technical capabilities that neither of the two dominant nuclear powers currently possesses.
China’s nuclear arsenal remains significantly smaller than those of the United States and Russia, but it has expanded rapidly in recent years, a buildup that has become a central concern for American defense planners. U.S. officials have cited the expansion as a key argument behind the administration’s push for trilateral arms negotiations involving Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
The renewed focus follows President Donald Trump’s earlier claim that China and Russia had undertaken nuclear explosive testing. Trump has pledged to resume U.S. nuclear explosive testing “on an equal basis.”
The last confirmed U.S. nuclear test was in 1992. Russia last conducted a test in 1990, while China’s most recent confirmed test took place at Lop Nur in 1996.
The United States, Russia and China signed the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The United States and China never ratified the treaty, and Russia rescinded its ratification in 2023.
China’s embassy in Washington has previously rejected allegations of renewed testing, saying Beijing adheres to a nuclear testing moratorium.
According to a Pentagon report, China has about 600 nuclear warheads. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates Russia has about 4,300 nuclear warheads and the United States about 3,700 as of January 2025.
U.S. officials have not disclosed additional evidence supporting the assessment, and analysts say it remains difficult to reach a conclusive determination based solely on seismic data.
Trump said in October that the United States would begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Moscow and Beijing, though he did not elaborate on the type or scope of testing he intended to resume.
DiNanno’s comments in Geneva came as he presented a new U.S. proposal calling for three-way talks with Russia and China aimed at setting new limits on nuclear weapons.
The proposal follows the expiration of New START, described as the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between Washington and Moscow, which expired last Thursday.
China has already rejected participation in disarmament negotiations “at this stage.”
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