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The International Energy Agency is keeping a second emergency oil stock release off the table for now, as the prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to squeeze global supply and draw down inventories.
"Not for the time being," IEA chief Fatih Birol said Monday on the sidelines of an energy conference in Norway when asked whether the agency was discussing another release.
He added that the IEA was watching energy markets "very, very closely."
Birol said 80% of strategic reserves remained after the March release, leaving most of the emergency stocks available for any future supply shock.
The position comes after IEA member countries agreed in March to make 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves available to the market.
The agency described the move at the time as its largest-ever coordinated oil stock release, aimed at addressing disruptions caused by the Middle East War.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a major constraint on the international oil market months after the conflict began.
In its August Oil Market Report, the IEA said regional exports, including shipments using routes that bypass Hormuz, fell by 2.1 million barrels per day in July to 15 million barrels per day after the waterway was effectively closed again in early July.
Global oil inventories plunged by 69 million barrels in July to just below 7.9 billion barrels, leaving total stocks 410 million barrels below levels at the start of the war, according to the IEA.
Global oil supply increased by 2.4 million barrels per day in July to 101.5 million barrels per day, but remained 6.3 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. Gulf output that remained shut in stood at 8.3 million barrels per day.
The agency has since lowered its supply outlook for the rest of the year. It expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day on average in 2026 before rebounding by 8.3 million barrels per day in 2027 to 110.3 million barrels per day.
Birol also warned about Europe's gas storage position, with reserves currently at around 62%, according to the transparency platform AGSI.
The European Union has set a target of reaching 80% storage by Dec. 1, leaving current levels below that goal ahead of winter. Europe's stocks are below historical averages, while the region is still hoping to secure gas from the Middle East as it moves to eliminate Russian gas imports, Birol highlighted.
"The stocks are lower than historical averages, and we are still hoping to get gas from the Middle East, and at the same time ... Europe has committed itself to nullify the Russian gas imports," he said.
He warned that Europe could face additional pressure if winter conditions are particularly severe.
"If we have a harsh winter in Europe, we may have some challenges," he said.
Natural gas prices for September contracts traded at the Dutch TTF, Europe’s most liquid virtual natural gas trading hub, rose 4.7% from Friday’s close to an intraday high of €69.2 per megawatt-hour on Monday amid concerns over low storage levels and potential supply disruptions.
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