Newsletters
Commercial oil stocks are falling “very fast” as Gulf supplies remain disrupted by the Middle East war, even as governments release strategic reserves, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said Monday.
Birol made the remarks as he arrived for a meeting of G7 finance ministers in Paris, warning that inventories were declining rapidly and were not unlimited.
“The commercial inventories are declining ... I think it’s depleting very fast now,” Birol told journalists.
His warning came as Ryanair Group Chief Executive Michael O’Leary said Europe’s jet fuel supply was in “relatively good” condition despite uncertainty over when the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.
Birol said there were still several weeks before shortages could become more severe but warned that stocks were falling quickly.
“We have still several weeks but we should be aware of the fact that they’re declining rapidly,” he said, adding that “these are not endless.”
Fears of shortages are rising as the summer travel season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Airlines have warned of jet fuel scarcity within weeks if supply disruptions continue.
Iran has effectively halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes launched in late February, choking off oil and gas traffic and sending prices higher.
The IEA said countries were tapping oil inventories and strategic reserves at a “record pace” as talks to end the war stalled. It has coordinated the release of 426 million barrels from emergency stocks by its 32 member countries, with around 164 million barrels already drawn.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Sunday that “the clock is ticking” and that “there won’t be anything left” of Iran if no peace deal is reached amid a fragile truce.
Ryanair said passenger numbers rose 4% year-on-year to 208.4 million in the financial year ending in March 2026, while revenue increased 11% to £15.5 billion ($20.73 million).
O’Leary said the Middle East conflict had created economic uncertainty and restrictions in jet fuel supply after commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted.
“Europe’s jet fuel supply is relatively good, with significant amounts of fuel sourced from West Africa, the Americas and Norway,” O’Leary said.
He said global spot prices for jet fuel had risen above $150 per barrel and were expected to remain above pre-conflict levels for several more months.
O’Leary said Ryanair had hedged 80% of its jet fuel supply for the 2027 financial year at $668 per ton. He said demand remained strong despite tensions, but booking periods had become shorter than last year.
Ryanair Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan said he was increasingly confident there would be no jet fuel supply shock this summer.
According to S&P Global Energy data, before the war, 177,000 barrels of jet fuel were supplied daily from the Middle East to northwest Europe, 31,000 to southern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean, 100,000 to Africa and 17,000 to Asia.
Regions heavily dependent on Gulf supply, especially Europe, are among the most vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Set as preferred source
Set as preferred source
1 min read
1 min read
