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Benchmark oil and gas prices declined sharply on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that American forces could soon “withdraw from Iran”, raising expectations of a de-escalation in the conflict.
Brent crude fell by 5% to around $98.7, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also dropped 5% to approximately $96.6 per barrel at their intraday low. At the same time, European natural gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub declined by 6% to €47.3 ($54.8) per megawatt-hour.
Prices rebounded in the following hours, with Brent standing at $101.6, WTI at $98.9, and Dutch TTF at €48.3 as of 8:13 a.m. GMT, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory.
Speaking at the Oval Office on Tuesday after signing a presidential decree, Trump said U.S. forces could leave Iran within weeks. "All I have to do is leave Iran, and we’ll be doing that very soon, we'll be leaving very soon," he said.
He added that the withdrawal could take place in "maybe two weeks, maybe three," and noted that it could happen regardless of whether a deal with Tehran is reached. "We'll leave whether we have a deal or not. It's irrelevant," Trump told reporters.
The combination of Trump’s remarks and falling energy prices also helped global equities and precious metals recover losses driven by heightened inflation concerns.
Oil and gas markets had experienced sharp volatility during the five-week U.S.-Israel war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, saw severe disruption as insurers withdrew war-risk coverage and security risks escalated. Although limited shipping resumed under certain conditions, traffic through the strait remained significantly below normal levels.
During the conflict, oil prices surged to nearly $119 per barrel, marking the highest level since April 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war. European natural gas prices also more than doubled, peaking above €70 per megawatt-hour.
Despite the latest decline, Brent crude still trades 36% higher than pre-war levels, while European gas prices remain up by 60%.
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