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Türkiye’s state-owned grain agency, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), has resumed wheat purchases from Russia, importing 300,000 metric tons in its first purchase since February 2023, seen as a step to prevent supply shocks amid a decades-worst drought that has reduced harvests.
The shipment was made under cost and freight (C&F) terms with United Grain Company, according to a notice cited by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, though pricing details were not disclosed.
The renewed procurement comes in the wake of a sharp downturn in domestic wheat production. Türkiye’s wheat harvest for the 2025/2026 season is expected to drop to 17.9 million tons, down from 19 million tons in the prior season and a record 21 million tons in 2023/2024, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute's (TurkStat) latest estimations.
TMO, which regulates domestic grain markets, had halted Russian purchases following stronger yields in previous years, but Russian wheat continued flowing into the country through private importers, as Türkiye became the second-largest buyer of Russian wheat after Egypt in October 2025, with shipments surging 90% year-on-year to 883,000 tons.
During the first 10 months of the year, Türkiye’s wheat imports from Russia totaled $630.1 million, compared to $1.19 billion in all of 2024, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
In its latest report released this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected that Türkiye’s wheat imports will more than double in 2026, reaching 7.3 million metric tons—a 121% year-on-year increase. The agency attributed the surge to severe drought conditions, which are expected to reduce Türkiye’s wheat output by 15%, bringing total production down to 16.3 million tons despite nearly unchanged planting areas.
The report emphasized that persistent dry weather across key agricultural zones has weakened yields and exposed structural vulnerabilities in Türkiye’s climate-sensitive grain production system.
A potential shortfall in the domestic wheat market could drive prices higher and disrupt the ongoing disinflation process, as seen in September 2025, when a 4.6% monthly surge in consumer prices broke a 15-month streak of steady declines, making such preventative measures increasingly seen as necessary to safeguard price stability.
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