Türkiye household, real sector inflation expectations ease in November

Türkiye’s inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined among households and the real sector in November, despite a slight increase among market participants, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) reported on Tuesday.

According to the survey, market professionals now expect annual inflation to reach 23.49% in the next 12 months, marking a 0.23 percentage point increase from the previous month.

Expectations among the real sector and households continued to ease, with the real sector lowering its 12-month inflation forecast by 0.6 points to 35.70%, and households reducing theirs by 2.15 points to 52.24%.

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Consumer confidence in disinflation fades

While falling projections from consumers and producers support the disinflation narrative, rising forecasts from the market suggest that inflation risks remain on investors’ radar.

Despite lower inflation forecasts, fewer households expect inflation to decline over the coming year. The share of households anticipating disinflation dropped by 1.67 points to 24.83% in November, suggesting growing uncertainty about the pace and durability of price stability.

Compared to the same period last year, however, household and real sector inflation expectations have improved by 12 percentage points, the Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek asserted in his social media post.

Line chart shows 12-month-ahead inflation expectations by sector — market participants, real sector, and households — from January 2019 to November 2025. (Chart via CBRT)

Finance Minister says policy gains traction as inflation expectations ease

Commenting on the figures, Minister Simsek said the decline in expectations among households and businesses reflects the growing impact of the government’s disinflation program, which has been in place since mid-2023.

He stated that sustained improvement in expectations would contribute to easing pricing behavior over time.

"As inflation continues to decline, we foresee stronger improvements in expectations and a decrease in pricing rigidity," the minister said, adding that structural reforms will continue to support economic resilience and price stability.

Türkiye's inflation declined to 32.87% in October, and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, Dec. 3.

November 25, 2025 02:01 PM GMT+03:00