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Türkiye’s inflation outlook took a turn for the worse in April as expectations climbed across the board, while households increasingly prepared for sharp price rises in food and energy, the central bank survey showed.
Inflation projections have climbed across all sectors for the next 12 months. Market participants now project 23.4%, the real sector 33.7%, and households 51.6%. Notably, only 14.6% of respondents anticipate a slowdown in price growth.
In the Household Expectations Survey, 40.7% of respondents identified food as the fastest-rising category in April, while the share of households reporting the highest price increases in fuel and energy rose by 7.5 percentage points to 38.3%.
Food and energy stood out as the biggest price risers over the past year and are expected to keep leading increases over the next 12 months.
Expectations for housing prices continued to inch up, with participants projecting a 35.2% increase over the next year. The projected U.S. dollar rate eased to ₺52.12.
The share of respondents choosing gold as a savings tool fell by 6.4 points to 48.8%, though it remained the top preference, as weaker price momentum amid the Iran war appeared to dampen expectations of gains. Meanwhile, interest in real estate, including housing, land and commercial property, rose by 4.9 points to 33.4%.
Türkiye's inflation declined to 30.9% at end-2025 levels in March, with monthly inflation at 1.9%. The most notable change came from energy prices, which rose 4.9% during the month as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy artery, sent oil prices as high as $120 per barrel.
Food prices had driven price growth in January and February before the conflict, as adverse weather conditions reduced yields and caused supply bottlenecks in fresh fruits and vegetables.
At its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this week, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate at 37%, warning that leading indicators point to a "slight increase" in the underlying trend of inflation in April.
In its first inflation report of the year, the central bank raised its inflation projection range to between 15% and 21%, keeping 16% as an interim target.
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