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Zurich-based UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, setting a target of $3,600 per ounce for March 2026 and $3,700 for both June and September 2026, while keeping its end-2025 projection unchanged at $3,500.
The revisions reflect expectations of continued robust demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks, combined with global de-dollarization trends that are pushing investors toward bullion as a reserve asset.
Spot prices currently trade at around $3,336 per ounce on Tuesday, with a modest daily gain of 0.1%.
In a note to its clients, UBS analysts cited a mix of economic and geopolitical factors supporting demand for bullion, including ongoing questions about U.S. Federal Reserve independence, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and persistent geopolitical risks.
UBS said that below-trend growth and persistent "sticky" inflation in the United States are likely to weigh on the dollar and real yields, creating favorable conditions for gold.
Markets currently anticipate three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, though Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish tone at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
“Despite the easing of some trade frictions, we see macro-related risks and geopolitical dynamics underpinning the case for higher prices,” the bank noted.
UBS cautioned, however, that a shift in U.S. monetary policy—specifically if the Fed were forced to raise rates—remains a key downside risk for gold.
Central bank purchases and global de-dollarization trends are also seen as fueling additional support for gold, as the global central banks added 162 tons of gold to their reserves during the first half of 2025, the World Gold Council reports.
Global gold demand is projected to rise 3% this year to 4,760 tonnes, the highest level since 2011.
UBS expects this increase to reinforce gold’s position as a leading asset in 2025.
So far this year, gold prices have climbed 27%, trading near $3,334 per ounce after reaching a record of $3,500 in April.
Markets are currently anticipating three U.S. rate cuts in 2025, though Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish stance at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium between Aug. 21 and 23.
UBS continues to hold a long position in gold within its global asset allocation, describing the outlook as “attractive.”
Earlier this month, Citi also raised its gold forecast, lifting its three-month target to $3,500 from $3,300 and widening the expected trading range to $3,300–$3,600.
The U.S. bank pointed to weaker growth prospects and tariff-related inflation concerns in the United States as drivers likely to push gold to new record highs in the second half of 2025.
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