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A succession crisis refers to the uncertainty surrounding who will become the ruler when a state's throne becomes vacant. Throughout history, numerous succession crises have occurred worldwide, profoundly impacting the course of events. One such crisis unfolded in the 16th century in the Kingdom of Poland, the territory we know today as Poland.
On July 7, 1572, the Polish King Sigismund II Augustus passed away without leaving any heirs. This was because a venereal disease had rendered the king infertile. The death of a childless king represented both opportunity and chaos for many states and dynasties. Poland's western neighbor, Habsburg Austria, eagerly sought to have the Pope approve a suitable candidate from within the Habsburg dynasty for the Polish crown. Meanwhile, Poland's eastern neighbor, the rising power of Russia under Ivan the Terrible, was preparing to expand its territorial gains in Polish lands, acquired during wars with Sigismund II Augustus, and to install its own supporter on the Polish throne. This political landscape had the potential to cause significant power shifts in Europe.
Poland, a major land power in Europe, could have fallen into the hands of the Habsburg Dynasty. On the other hand, a burgeoning Russia could have extended its influence in Central Europe, reaching unexpected heights of power.
Considering this crisis environment, it's also necessary to evaluate the situation from the perspective of the Ottomans, Poland's southern neighbor. Ottoman-Polish relations had been marked by indirect conflicts since their establishment. During the reign of Sultan Bayezid II, a series of campaigns led by Malkocoglu Bali Bey culminated in the Peace of 1503, which ushered in a long period of peace. In the subsequent years, the Poles pursued a peaceful policy towards their southern neighbors, and the Ottomans reciprocated. Poland's neutrality was, in fact, advantageous for the Ottomans. The arduous wars waged against the Hungarians, Germans, and Spaniards kept the Ottomans sufficiently occupied. Furthermore, a potential Polish-Ottoman war could have jeopardized the loyalty of vassal states such as Transylvania, Wallachia, and Moldavia to the central authority. The Polish kings had long harbored ambitions over Romanian territories, and the wars during Bayezid II's reign were aimed at establishing dominance over Moldavia. The peaceful stance of the Polish kings minimized this risk. However, this period of peace could have ended if a member of the Habsburg Dynasty ascended the Polish throne or if another power replaced the Poles in Central Europe. Moreover, due to the conquest of Cyprus and the defeat at Lepanto, the Ottomans had concentrated all their forces in the Mediterranean. Following the defeat at Lepanto, the state abandoned its expansionist policies on multiple fronts. The Ottomans, who had planned extensive campaigns in the Indian Ocean, Africa, and the North Caucasus before the defeat, abandoned all of these. With the situation in the Mediterranean uncertain, the emergence of war clouds from the north posed a significant threat to the empire.
The Ottoman Imperial Council (Divan-i Humayun) became convinced that intervention in the northern situation was necessary. The grand vizier of the time, Sokollu Mehmed Pasha, a great diplomat and strategist, first sent letters to the Polish nobles, sternly warning them against taking any action against the Ottomans and urging them to elect a king from among themselves. He stated that if they failed to do so, the election of an external king would not be acceptable. Additionally, Sokollu Mehmed Pasha ordered the sanjak-beys (governors) along the Danube to prepare for a potential war.
Next, Austria was addressed. The Imperial Council warned the Austrian King against interfering in the Polish succession crisis, stating that if he did so, the Beylerbey (governor-general) of Buda would be tasked with launching an attack. Austria's primary goal was either to seize the Polish throne or to partition the country. Polish territories would be given to Austria, Lithuanian territories to Russia, and subsequently, an alliance would be formed to attack the Ottoman Empire. However, the Ottoman show of force proved effective for the time being, and the Habsburgs were compelled to retreat.
On the other hand, the Russian issue remained unresolved. Sultan Selim II sent threatening letters to the Russian Tsar, demanding that Muscovite troops not enter Polish territory. In addition to all these measures, Sokollu Mehmed Pasha informed the Polish nobles that they should absolutely disregard the Russian threat, as the Crimean Khan Devlet Giray had been dispatched towards Moscow. A firman (imperial decree) sent to Devlet Giray also ordered him to prepare to repel any potential invasion of Polish territories.
Although these measures temporarily averted the immediate threat, the Polish nobles were unable to agree on a king from among themselves. This prolonged uncertainty was something the Ottomans could not tolerate. It was precisely at this moment that another European power intervened in the crisis. France, the Ottomans' sole ally in Europe, proposed a solution. The French King Charles IX nominated his brother, Henri de Valois, as a candidate. France did not want its enemy, the Habsburgs, to grow stronger by also gaining control of Poland. Moreover, the Ottomans were more inclined to accept a king from an allied kingdom than a Habsburg on the Polish throne. The Imperial Council decided to support Prince Henri de Valois. Letters were sent to the Polish nobles urging them to comply with this decision. Sultan Selim II informed the Polish nobles that electing a king hostile to the Ottomans would raise the possibility of attacks on the border cities of Poland.
In the letter sent to the Polish nobles, Sultan Selim II stated: "Our ancestors have always sought to prevent your enemies from harming your land. For this reason, I have also given my pledge. If you must elect a king from abroad, it is deemed preferable and appropriate that the brother of the King of France be appointed king to the aforementioned province, and I hereby command that, in accordance with my noble decree, you shall accept his brother as king and show him the necessary respect as king. You shall have no excuse acceptable whatsoever." This firman, which was essentially an order to the nobles, considered Poland under Ottoman protection and virtually dictated that they choose the French king's brother. The Polish nobles responded to this letter and pledged to comply with the Sultan's wishes.
Controlling the Polish nobles was crucial because, during the same period, Moldavia, an Ottoman vassal state, had revolted, and some Polish nobles had supported this rebellion. Therefore, Sultan Selim Khan's ability to enforce his will upon the Polish nobles was of vital importance. Sultan Selim Khan also informed the King of France, saying, "In accordance with our abundant favor and affection towards your noble court, we have appointed and designated your brother as king of the province of Poland." Thus, he declared that he had made this decision.
The Ottoman Imperial Council took the necessary measures to ensure the safe arrival of Henri de Valois, whom the Ottomans called "Hanriko," in Poland, and in 1573, Hanriko was able to ascend the Polish throne safely. Upon ascending the throne, Hanriko refrained from aiding the Moldavian revolt and even prevented nobles who were providing assistance. Eventually, the treacherous Voivode of Moldavia, Ioan III, was killed in the Battle of Jassy Plain. The crisis seemed to be resolved.
However, in a twist of historical irony, the Polish throne was once again thrown into contention. King Charles IX of France died in 1574, and his brother Henriko, who had ascended the Polish throne, disregarded all the efforts made and quietly left Poland without informing anyone, going to France to claim the French throne. The Ottoman Empire's efforts had been in vain, and everything was back to square one. Russian armies once again approached the Polish border, and the Habsburgs began preparations to nominate another candidate for the throne. In a letter sent to the King of Austria, the Sultan threatened that "no intervention or attack shall ever be made on the province of Poland, contrary to the treaties and agreements." Similarly, the Russian Tsar was warned that the Crimean Khan would launch an offensive. Ottoman patience had finally run out.
Eventually, the Imperial Council decided to elect Stephen Batory, the Prince of Transylvania, who was under Ottoman protection, as the King of Poland. The pressure exerted on Russia and Austria had yielded results. Stephen Batory was elected the new King of Poland after marrying Anna Jagiellon, the sister of the former King Sigismund II Augustus. Thus, an Ottoman tributary prince became the head of one of the largest state in Central Europe.
The Ottoman Empire's extensive involvement in Poland's internal affairs and its success in having one of its own vassals elected as King demonstrated that Poland was under Ottoman protection. Although this protection was a looser relationship compared to other vassal states, the Ottoman Empire extended its sphere of influence as far as the Baltic Sea. More importantly, the balance of power in Europe was maintained in favor of the Ottomans until the Partitions of Poland in the 18th century. Examining Stephen Batory's reign, he maintained good relations with the Ottomans and also halted Russian expansion in Europe by reclaiming the Livonian region, which had been invaded by the Russians. Batory is considered one of the most successful kings in Polish history, and his reign coincided with the beginning of Poland's Golden Age. The Ottomans, without even drawing their swords, preserved the status quo in Europe to their advantage through diplomacy alone. This event stands as a perfect historical example of what a state at the height of its power is capable of achieving.
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