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Türkiye is facing increasing seismic risks as 30 fault lines across the country have reached a critical point where they are ready to trigger earthquakes, according to Professor Hasan Sozbilir, Director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center at Dokuz Eylul University.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Sozbilir explained that a special category of faults known as "sismic gaps"—faults that have not generated earthquakes in a long time—have been identified as high risk. These faults are now seen as imminent earthquake producers and require urgent attention in urban planning.
Since 2011, scientists have classified 485 fault lines in Türkiye. According to Sozbilir, 30 of these are now in the "sismic gap" category, meaning they have not released stress through seismic activity and are primed for future quakes.
“The absence of earthquakes means stress is silently building up,” Sozbilir stated.
“When this is combined with paleoseismology studies, which reveal the historical earthquake cycles, we can determine that some faults are overdue for movement.”
The Istanbul region is especially vulnerable. The Kumburgaz, Adalar (Prince Islands), and Avcilar segments of the North Anatolian Fault are seen as potential sources of a devastating earthquake.
Elsewhere in Türkiye:
Many of these have not produced earthquakes for 3,000 to 4,000 years, leading to significant stress accumulation.
Sozbilir emphasized the necessity of applying “fay sakinim bandi” (fault avoidance zones) in regional planning. These zones would restrict construction on or near active fault lines.
“Municipalities must consider these faults in spatial planning. If a building lies on a fault, we must assess the likely impact of fault rupture. If the risk is high, that building should be included in urban transformation plans.”
The research center has submitted reports to local municipalities, who are coordinating with the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change for further action.
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