Smoke from months of wildfires across Indonesia caused an estimated 3,560 deaths in the Southeast Asian archipelago in September, according to a new study.
About 57.8 million people in the country were breathing unhealthy to hazardous air that month, said the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Helsinki-based think tank. Worsening air quality from forest and land fires pushed the estimated death toll to 3,560 in September 2026, double the August estimate, CREA said in a statement on Thursday.
The CREA study estimated the number of deaths brought about by PM2.5 pollution in the short term, meaning a matter of days.
PM2.5 particles are small enough to penetrate the lungs or bloodstream, and the World Health Organization has linked exposure to a higher risk for illness and premature death.
Most estimated deaths occurred on Indonesia’s part of Borneo island as well as on Java and Sumatra islands and in the country’s east, said the report.
The researchers also looked at non-fire pollution from urban power generation, industry, and transportation, and found it had caused a further 1,750 deaths in September for a total of 5,310 in the country of about 290 million people.
“In September alone, exposure levels breached the WHO annual PM2.5 threshold... by over seven times nationally, 10 times in Sumatra, and an alarming 24 times in Kalimantan” in Borneo, said the report.
More than 330,000 cases of acute respiratory infection have been recorded countrywide.
Gripped by drought worsened by the El Nino weather phenomenon, Indonesia has battled months of wildfires that have consumed over 1.9 million hectares through September, according to deforestation monitor Nusantara Atlas.
The Indonesian government has neither confirmed nor rejected the estimate.
The resulting transboundary haze has driven pollution levels soaring across Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and East Timor, straining regional diplomatic relations.
Experts attribute the fires largely to slash-and-burn land-clearing practices, frequently used by timber, palm oil, and mining companies.
Meanwhile, on Java—Indonesia's most populous island—the CREA report revealed that 73% to 80% of air pollution deaths in September were caused by non-fire sources, such as industrial facilities, vehicle emissions, and waste burning. The sources accounted for 1,530 deaths during the month.
"These figures underscore the stark reality that non-fire air pollution sources are as dangerous as smoke from burning forests and peatlands," the report stated.
In the report, the CEO of Landscape Indonesia consultancy, Agus Sari, pointed to the government’s “weak preparedness” for what he described as a “predictable and avoidable” disaster.
Agus pointed to budget cuts hampering the efforts of the BNPB national disaster management agency.
“Indonesia should be able to prepare for what is going to happen. The fact that we are not prepared at all is purely a matter of lacking the will,” said Agus.
The CREA report argued the government needs to shift from wildfire response to the restoration of peatlands left fire-prone by extensive draining.
“This step must be accompanied by firm law enforcement against illegal land clearing through burning, as well as strengthened legal accountability for concession holders to prevent damage,” it said.
For regions battling non-fire pollution, such as Java, it said the government must enforce stricter emissions standards.
The government on Wednesday defended its approach to the fires, saying in a statement that more than 72,000 people had been deployed in cloud-seeding and firefighting operations, more than 2,100 doctors and health workers activated in hard-hit areas, and 5.3 million masks distributed.