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Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to slow European air traffic growth and result in around 110,000 fewer flights in 2026 than previously projected, according to forecasts from European aviation agency Eurocontrol.
Despite strong passenger demand during the summer, Europe’s aviation sector has performed below earlier growth expectations.
The number of flights in the European Civil Aviation Conference, or ECAC, region is expected to increase 1.7% this year to 11.2 million, compared with a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.
Changes to flight routes caused by developments in the Middle East, along with rising jet fuel prices, have weighed on the outlook.
Eurocontrol expects growth to regain momentum in 2027, forecasting a 3.2% increase to 11.6 million flights.
Eurocontrol’s baseline forecast assumes the situation in the Middle East will stabilize by the end of the first quarter of 2027.
Under a more pessimistic scenario, however, tensions could persist through the end of the first quarter of 2028, while high fuel costs and weaker economic growth could continue to limit demand for air travel.
The downward revision to this year’s forecast has also raised expectations that flight numbers next year could fall short of earlier estimates.
The recovery is expected to become more pronounced next year, with Eurocontrol saying growth could be stronger in Türkiye and some Eastern Mediterranean countries.
European air traffic is forecast to grow by an average of 2.1% annually between 2026 and 2032, bringing the total number of flights in the region to around 12.8 million by 2032.
Eurocontrol said its medium-term growth outlook remains broadly unchanged, although geopolitical developments could leave flight numbers slightly below previous expectations.
Eurocontrol’s latest network management report recorded an average of 35,679 flights per day in European airspace last month, up 2.5% from the previous month.
Sept. 4 was the busiest day, with 37,548 flights recorded across European airspace.
Air traffic flow management delays totaled slightly more than 2.4 million minutes during the month.
Despite the increase in flight activity, capacity limitations, adverse weather and air traffic management issues continued to affect operational performance.
Eurocontrol said geopolitical developments, airspace restrictions, energy prices and passenger demand would shape European aviation trends in the coming period.
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