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El Nino is a natural climate event that alters global wind patterns, air pressure, and rainfall. This year, it may be the strongest in decades, and Asia is one of the most at-risk regions.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations' weather and climate agency, reports that early signs point to a particularly intense event. Some observers are calling it a "super El Nino," although scientists do not officially use this term.
The WMO says these conditions could appear as early as May to July.
Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University in Australia, said the early signs are worrying. "The subsurface anomaly that we're seeing so far is pretty strong," he told Agence France-Presse (AFP). "It does look a little bit like what we saw in the 1997/98 event, and that was probably the strongest El Nino." However, van Rensch also warned that an El Nino might not develop at all.
This situation comes at a tough time for the region, which is already dealing with an energy shortage caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Since Feb. 28, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz after attacks by the United States and Israel, disrupting global fuel supplies.
Haneea Isaad, an energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said that hotter weather will put more strain on energy grids already facing fuel shortages, as people try to cool their homes and workplaces.
"For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management, and a reduction in economic activities impacting overall GDP growth," she told AFP.
The droughts caused by El Nino also directly threaten hydropower, which is a major energy source in Southeast Asia.
Dinita Setyawati, a senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember think tank, noted that Mekong countries, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia are particularly at risk. "Most Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries use a lot of hydropower," she said.
The risk became clear in 2022, when a heatwave in China reduced hydropower generation in Sichuan province by more than 50%, leading to shortages for both homes and businesses.
Hotter, drier weather is expected to worsen existing agricultural problems. Fertilizer and fuel for farming equipment have already become more expensive because of the conflict in the Middle East, and crop prices may not increase quickly enough to cover these higher costs.
BMI, a unit of the Fitch Solutions research company, warned that producer margins could be squeezed, raising "the likelihood of lower fertilizer application and weaker yields."
The firm added that this "would intensify food price inflation and worsen food insecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable markets."
Isaad also pointed out that parts of Asia could see heavy rainfall rather than drought during El Nino, which could cause flooding and affect areas such as southern China.
Scientists are still studying how climate change affects the frequency and intensity of El Nino events. However, experts agree that climate change is already causing more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as sudden heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding.
The 1997 El Nino shows how much damage can happen. That year, extreme drought and wildfires burned millions of hectares in Indonesia, causing serious air pollution across the region.
Indonesian officials have already identified peatlands at risk and warned that the country could have its lowest rainfall in 30 years.
Analysts recommend that countries in the region respond by diversifying and making their energy systems more environmentally friendly.
"Solar and wind, coupled with batteries, provide a more resilient infrastructure than a centralized fossil infrastructure," Setyawati said.
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