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Türkiye is entering an era of sharp demographic decline, with the country's population projected to drop significantly by the end of the century. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), the total population could fall to 54 million by 2100, while the United Nations projects an even steeper drop to just 38 million.
These figures mark a demographic turning point, raising urgent questions about Türkiye’s future workforce, social welfare, and economic sustainability.
In 1990, Türkiye’s average fertility rate stood at 3.11 children per woman. By 2023, this had fallen to 1.51, and in 2024, it dropped further to 1.48—well below the replacement level of 2.1 required to sustain population growth. This marks the first time in the country’s history that fertility has dipped so low.
Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas described the situation as reaching an “alarm level,” stating that Türkiye is no longer reproducing at a rate to maintain its current population.
The decline is not evenly distributed across the country. In 2014, only one province had a fertility rate below 1.5. As of 2024, that number has ballooned to 55. Northern and western provinces are particularly affected, with Bartin and Eskisehir reporting just 1.12 children per woman, and Ankara and Zonguldak close behind.
In total, 71 provinces now report fertility rates below the replacement threshold, up from 57 in 2017. Although Türkiye still ranks slightly above the EU average fertility rate of 1.38, the speed of decline has placed the country among the fastest-aging societies in the region.
Beyond birth rates, household structures are also shifting. The average household size has decreased from four people in 2008 to just over three in 2024. This trend reflects the rise in smaller nuclear families and a growing number of one-person households.
In 2016, 14.9% of households consisted of individuals living alone. By 2024, this figure had reached 20%. The rates are even higher in some provinces: Gumushane (31.7%), Tunceli (29.8%), and Giresun (29.7%). These areas are also experiencing youth outmigration, leaving behind older residents and single parents.
Social data also show warning signs of family dynamics. While the number of marriages in 2024 remained stable at around 568,000, divorces surged from 173,000 to 187,000—a new record.
Single-parent households are on the rise as well, now making up 10.9% of all homes. In provinces such as Bingol, Elazig and Adana, that number exceeds 13%.
The government has responded by framing the demographic situation as both a development and a national security concern. It has introduced the “Family and Population Decade,” a strategic plan for 2026–2035 designed to monitor trends and implement inter-ministerial solutions to halt the decline.
Among the measures is the “Family and Youth Fund,” launched in January 2025. The program offers a financial support package of ₺150,000 (approximately $3,700) to first-time marrying couples aged 18–29. Piloted in earthquake-affected regions, the program led to a 64% rise in marriages in target areas.
To encourage childbirth, the birth allowance program has been revised. As of 2025, families receive a one-time payment of ₺5,000 (approximately $125) for their first child. Monthly support of ₺1,500 (approximately $38) is provided for second children until age five, and 5,000 lira per month for third children. The initiative has already drawn nearly 170,000 applications.
The government also aims to increase access to childcare through expanded day care services and a new community-based care model known as “komsu anne” (neighbor mother). This model involves trusted, trained women in local communities providing part-time childcare to working mothers.
Additional reforms include legal rights to part-time work for new parents, as well as efforts to balance responsibilities between mothers and fathers. Policies are being designed to promote greater paternal involvement in childcare and reduce the burden traditionally placed on women.
While some critics have questioned whether past policies were influenced by external agendas aiming to reduce Türkiye’s population, officials stress the need for holistic, inclusive solutions.
As Türkiye stands at a demographic crossroads, officials warn that without immediate and coordinated action, the country may face long-term consequences that threaten both social cohesion and economic progress.
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