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The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is under immense political pressure, felt even more intensely by its rookie chair. A seasoned MP from Türkiye’s industrial heartland, Manisa, Ozgur Ozel's appearance suggested he hadn’t expected to become the CHP’s seventh chair, an "honor" that every CHP member dreamed of since childhood.
Shortly after his election in November 2023 as the chair, Ozel underwent eye surgery to shed his glasses, dyed his hair, and changed his traditional Ankara-style attire. Despite Erdogan hoping to see Ozel become an Ankara-centric, conventional CHP chairman like Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Deniz Baykal, who heavily relied on party bureaucracy and Ankara politics, Ozel revealed a different approach over time. He launched demonstrations in ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) strongholds, mobilizing people on the ground, and using his oratory skills to connect with the public.
Erdogan’s first step was to initiate a normalization process between the government and the opposition, as he publicly said the political tension and polarization were hurting the country.
Ozel visited the AK Party headquarters, and Erdogan paid a visit to CHP headquarters—a first in 18 years. His real aim was to test Ozel’s loyalty to former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Erdogan wanted to elevate Ozel’s status as a direct interlocutor as the CHP’s leader and diminish Imamoglu’s influence on him over time.
As a politician who became an MP at the age of 36 during Kilicdaroglu’s term, Ozel had no ideological ties or loyalty to Imamoglu. In fact, I would argue that nobody in CHP holds ideological loyalty to Imamoglu.
When Erdogan first became the prime minister in 2003, he had a strong ideological base, and millions of pious Turks saw him as a champion against secular, Kemalist patronage.
For Imamoglu, his only success is the mastery of garnering anti-Erdogan votes easily by being sympathetic to different groups in the political spectrum. That resulted in a benefit-based alliance with Imamoglu inside CHP, as he was seen as the only viable option in the next presidential elections to beat President Erdogan.
Imamoglu praises Ataturk in the morning, says he reads the Quran in the afternoon, and sips an aged wine for dinner. Such a political identity carried Imamoglu only so far, but for Erdogan, he lacks genuine grassroots support within the CHP base. Such a weak bond around Imamoglu made Erdogan think that he could easily break the alliance and Imamoglu’s supporters inside CHP.
President Erdogan considered Ozel lightweight and quickly thought of creating a wedge between Ozel and Imamoglu, who is considered Ozel’s patron.
Ozel was elected as the chair after open backing from Imamoglu, who requested "a change" for CHP right after former chair Kilicdaroglu’s loss against President Erdogan in 2023. After Kilicdaroglu’s loss, many meetings were organized and chaired by Imamoglu in order to create a new leadership for CHP. Imamoglu may have viewed Ozel as a low-profile politician with an unremarkable presence, known mainly for a few viral clips of him shouting at opponents. A caretaker CHP chair, one would say.
Ozel’s statement this week is probably a game-changer in Erdogan’s eyes. He increased his anti-Erdogan rhetoric, calling Erdogan "a putschist, not a president." In his speech on July 5, he called for early elections on Nov. 2, accused Erdogan of being a "coward," and said "he still did not invite people to the streets," a veiled threat to the ruling party that he can mobilize more CHP voters in case the pressure increases. He also openly reiterated his support for Imamoglu by saying that "only an Imamoglu picture can beat Erdogan in the next election, despite his imprisonment."
Such uncalibrated rhetoric from the opposition leader would convince Erdogan of the fact that Ozel and his "transactional" loyalty to Imamoglu are not ready to be broken.
From Ozel’s angle, openly snubbing Imamoglu’s case and abandoning him in prison to pursue normalization with the government may be a suicidal act. He wants the government to lower the political pressure on his party and municipalities to discuss a transactional political normalization in Türkiye. For Erdogan, Ozel ending his unreasonable loyalty is a "sine qua non."
Ozel’s harsh remarks mark a turning point. In their aftermath, the AK Party’s political tone will be important to watch closely. They might deliberately lower the pressure on Ozel to give him some free room.
At the end of the day, the AK Party's initial bet was that the Imamoglu case would fade away from people’s agenda, as he lacks a genuine ideological support base. Imamoglu is just a man who can resonate with anti-Erdogan sentiment, but his political narrative remains limited to opposition without offering a clear vision or hope for Türkiye’s future.
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