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Israeli media reported that Israel faces two critical foreign policy setbacks after two political figures seen as close allies of Israel lost elections in Brazil and Serbia over the weekend.
According to a report by Yedioth Ahronoth, the election result in Brazil derailed plans to end the diplomatic crisis between Israel and Brazil and to “move the embassy to Jerusalem.”
The political turmoil in Serbia, meanwhile, casts uncertainty over critical arms shipments and a drone partnership, and has exposed the risks of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reliance on personal alliances in foreign policy.
In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, securing another term.
In Serbia, former President Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat to a student-led movement in parliamentary elections. The movement was born of anti-government protests that have lasted nearly two years.
The newspaper said the situation in Brazil represents a missed opportunity to repair diplomatic ties. Developments in Serbia, for their part, leave a strategic partnership based on arms procurement, defense technology and military cooperation facing serious uncertainty.
Relations between Israel and Brazil are already at a historic low.
Israel declared Lula persona non grata over his remarks comparing its attacks on Gaza to the Holocaust and the conduct of Israeli soldiers to that of the Nazis.
Because of the crisis, neither country currently has an ambassador serving in the other’s capital.
Against this tense backdrop, Bolsonaro entered the race promising to reverse the Lula administration’s policies, deepen military and diplomatic cooperation, and move the Brazilian Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Bolsonaro also signaled his intention to restore the level of diplomatic representation, pledging to accept the credentials of a new Israeli ambassador on his first day in office.
Netanyahu openly backed the possibility of a change of government in Brazil, congratulating Bolsonaro after the first round and conveying his wishes for success in the runoff.
However, Netanyahu’s open public support for Bolsonaro further widened the gap with Lula, from whom he was already distant.
Netanyahu is also not expected to phone Lula to congratulate him on his election victory.
The report said Bolsonaro’s defeat at the ballot box means all these promises are shelved.
The defeat eliminates the return of ambassadors to the capitals, closer defense cooperation and the possibility of moving the embassy to Jerusalem, leaving Israel facing a new era under a Lula administration whose relationship with Netanyahu is openly hostile.
The Serbian election results could carry far heavier costs for Israel, the newspaper said, since ties between Tel Aviv and Belgrade had already evolved into a strategic military partnership.
Under Vucic, Serbia became a key supplier during Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip, which amounted to genocide.
While many countries restricted or embargoed arms exports to Israel over war crimes, the Serbian government continued shipping military equipment and ammunition without pause. A large-scale air bridge was even built, with a record increase in shipments throughout the Gaza attacks. This replenished the stocks of bombs, missiles and artillery shells the Israeli army expended while striking Gaza.
This military logistics line turned into joint production in September 2026. A factory opened in Serbia, in cooperation with Israeli defense company Elbit Systems, to assemble Israeli-origin drones.
But Vucic’s election loss raised serious questions over whether the new Serbian leadership will maintain this military cooperation.
Another dimension of the change in power in Serbia is the possibility of rapprochement with the European Union.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s welcoming of the student movement’s victory, along with her statement that the bloc is ready to support Serbia’s accession process, was the first sign of this.
The report said Belgrade’s pursuit of integration with European institutions could bring pressure on the new government to align with the EU’s official position on the Israeli-Palestinian issue and lead it to suspend the military partnership with Tel Aviv.
Election results in both countries, the newspaper said, expose the weakness in how Netanyahu built many of Israel’s international relationships.
The problem is not limited to Brazil and Serbia. Similar risks emerge in Israel’s relations with the U.S. and European countries, where government changes can directly affect policies even if strategic interests remain the same.
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