Newsletters
Intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, known as Mossad, are actively working to determine the physical condition and whereabouts of Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
He failed to deliver a Nowruz address on Friday, breaking with his father's tradition, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on Feb. 28, deepening the mystery around who is actually running Iran, Axios reported on Saturday.
The CIA, Mossad, and other intelligence agencies watched closely during Nowruz on Friday to see whether Mojtaba would follow his father's tradition of delivering a new year's address.
When the holiday passed with only a written statement and photographs on his Telegram channel, with no prerecorded video, the mystery surrounding his condition deepened.
"We would have expected to see Mojtaba, too, in some form. He didn't take advantage of the opportunity and tradition," a U.S. official told Axios. "It's a big red flag."
The CIA was trying to determine whether the photographs published on his Telegram channel for Nowruz were recent, the official said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released a video message for Nowruz despite threats to his own safety.
The U.S. and Israel have intelligence suggesting Mojtaba remains alive, including evidence of Iranian officials attempting to schedule in-person meetings with him, which have been unsuccessful due to security concerns.
However, that has not resolved questions about whether he is actually exercising authority.
"We have no evidence that he is really the one giving orders," a senior Israeli official told Axios.
"It's beyond weird. We don't think the Iranians would have gone through all this trouble to choose a dead guy as the supreme leader, but at the same time, we have no proof that he is taking the helm," a U.S. official said.
The mystery around Mojtaba has come up during several of Trump's intelligence briefings, and his national security team is still working to assess who is actually in charge in Tehran.
Speaking during the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy presentation ceremony at the White House in Washington, D.C. on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the command vacuum in Tehran, saying, "Their leaders are all gone. The next set of leaders is all gone. And the next set of leaders is mostly gone. And now, nobody wants to be a leader over there anymore."
"We are having a hard time. We want to talk to them, but there is nobody to talk to. You know what, we like it that way," he added.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director Gen. James Adams testified in a classified hearing Thursday before the House Intelligence Committee that the Iranian regime is experiencing a deep command-and-control crisis, but there is no sign of imminent collapse, according to three sources with knowledge of the hearing.
Ratcliffe and Adams stressed it was too early to know whether the regime can survive the war and the loss of so many senior leaders.
Two senior Israeli officials said the assassination of Ali Larijani last week expanded the power vacuum, which is being filled mainly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
"Mojtaba's rise was enabled by his close ties to the IRGC," which Israeli officials say is now effectively running the country.
"The IRGC are taking over Iran, and they are crazy. They are highly ideological and are ready to die and meet Khamenei Senior," a senior Arab official told Axios.
Israeli officials have made clear that laying the groundwork for regime change is one of Israel's stated war aims.
"The more we increase the external pressure on them, the more it will increase the internal pressure. The more that happens, the bigger the chances are that the regime breaks down," a senior Israeli official said.
Mojtaba was announced as the Supreme Leader on March 9. His public response was limited to a written Telegram statement three days later.
U.S. and Israeli intelligence had seen security chief Ali Larijani as Iran's de facto leader until Israel assassinated him last Tuesday.
The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, with Tehran retaliating with repeated drone and missile strikes targeting Israel and Gulf countries hosting U.S. military assets.
Set as preferred source
Set as preferred source
2 min read
