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Israelis will head to the polls Tuesday in a closely contested parliamentary election that could bring an end to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure or plunge the country into another political deadlock, with neither major bloc projected to secure a governing majority.
The vote will mark Israel's first general election since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent Israeli military offensive in the Gaza Strip, as well as military confrontations with Lebanon and Iran.
It will also be the first Israeli general election held on schedule since 1988, following decades of political instability in which successive governments collapsed before completing their four-year terms.
Approximately 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, including around 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Voting will take place at 12,018 polling stations, with approximately 18,000 ballot boxes deployed nationwide. Most polling stations will open at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close at 10 p.m. (2000 GMT), with election day designated a public holiday.
A total of 37 parties and electoral lists are competing for seats in the 120-member Knesset, where at least 61 lawmakers are needed to form a governing coalition.
Under Israel's proportional representation system, voters cast their ballots for political parties rather than individual candidates. Parties must receive at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter parliament.
No party has ever secured an outright Knesset majority, making coalition negotiations crucial in determining who ultimately becomes prime minister.
Final opinion polls published by Israel's three main television broadcasters show former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu's Likud.
The surveys project Yashar winning between 22 and 23 seats, compared with 19 to 21 for Likud.
The B'Yachad (Together) alliance, led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is projected to finish third with 14 or 15 seats.
Other prominent opposition parties include the Democrats, headed by former general Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beytenu, led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
According to the three surveys, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc is projected to secure 50 seats, while opposition parties are expected to win between 52 and 56.
Palestinian-led parties, meanwhile, are projected to capture a combined 14 to 16 seats.
The figures point to a fragmented Knesset in which neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot would have an immediate path to the 61-seat majority required to govern.
Securing the largest share of parliamentary seats does not automatically guarantee the premiership.
Following the election, President Isaac Herzog will consult with the elected parties before assigning the task of forming a government to the lawmaker considered most capable of assembling a parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu, 77, is seeking another term after serving as Israel's prime minister for more than 18 years across three separate periods.
His campaign has centered on national security, with Netanyahu portraying his political experience and military policies as essential to protecting Israelis against regional threats.
However, he continues to face criticism over his government's failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attacks, its conduct of subsequent military campaigns and its opposition to establishing an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures.
Netanyahu is also standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies, and faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
His potential coalition partners include far-right parties led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, alongside the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties.
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have advocated expanding illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, opposed Palestinian statehood and encouraged Palestinians to leave Gaza.
The ultra-Orthodox parties, meanwhile, have faced growing criticism over their demands to preserve military-service exemptions for religious students as the Israeli military struggles with personnel shortages following years of conflict.
Eisenkot, 66, served as chief of the Israeli military from 2015 to 2019 before joining Netanyahu's emergency government following the Oct. 7 attacks.
He later quit the government, criticizing Netanyahu's management of the Gaza offensive and the lack of a clear political strategy.
Eisenkot's son was killed while serving with the Israeli military in Gaza in December 2023.
His campaign has emphasized government accountability, political stability and restoring public confidence in state institutions.
He has called for an official inquiry into the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attacks and supports ending broad military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men.
Despite presenting himself as an alternative to Netanyahu, Eisenkot shares several of the prime minister's positions on major security issues.
He opposes the establishment of a fully sovereign Palestinian state under current conditions and maintains that Hamas' military capabilities and governing authority in Gaza must be dismantled.
The contest therefore reflects competing approaches to political leadership, government accountability, judicial independence and relations with far-right parties, even as the two leading contenders hold similar positions on key security matters.
The Joint List and Ra'am, the main political parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, could emerge as pivotal players if neither major bloc wins the 61 seats needed to form a government.
Opinion polls project the Joint List securing around nine seats, while Ra'am is expected to win between five and seven.
An Eisenkot-led government could require support from one or both Palestinian-led parties, either through formal coalition participation or outside parliamentary backing.
However, such an arrangement would face significant political obstacles.
Lieberman has ruled out joining a government dependent on Palestinian-led parties, while other opposition figures have stopped short of committing to such cooperation.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, has repeatedly raised the prospect of Palestinian-led parties influencing the next government as part of efforts to mobilize right-wing voters.
Several coalition arrangements could emerge from Tuesday's election, although none of the main political blocs is projected to secure a majority on its own.
Netanyahu could remain in power if his right-wing and religious alliance wins additional seats or attracts lawmakers from outside his existing bloc.
An Eisenkot-led government could depend on an agreement with Palestinian-led parties, support from lawmakers in other political camps or compromises among opposition leaders with sharply different ideological positions.
Another possibility would be a unity government involving Likud and major opposition parties, although Eisenkot and several of his allies have ruled out serving under Netanyahu.
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If neither side manages to assemble a parliamentary majority, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister during prolonged coalition negotiations, potentially leading to another election.
The results of smaller parties polling near the 3.25% electoral threshold could prove particularly consequential.
Parties that fail to cross the threshold receive no parliamentary representation, potentially depriving their political allies of crucial seats and altering the balance between the competing blocs.
Exit polls are expected immediately after voting ends at 10 p.m. local time Tuesday, offering the first indication of the election's outcome.
Initial official results are expected to emerge overnight, although counting ballots cast by military personnel, hospital patients, prisoners and voters under other special arrangements could take several days.
The final official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4.
Even after the results are confirmed, coalition negotiations could stretch on for weeks, leaving the identity of Israel's next prime minister uncertain well beyond election night.
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