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Senior Israeli officials privately told U.S. diplomats that Iranian protesters would "get slaughtered" if they took to the streets against their government, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly urged Iranians to rise up and promised "we will protect you," according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Washington Post.
The cable, circulated by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on Friday and authenticated by two State Department officials, relayed an Israeli assessment that Iran's regime is "not cracking" and is willing to "fight to the end" despite the Feb. 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the ongoing U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign.
If large numbers of Iranians take to the streets, Israeli officials said "the people will get slaughtered" because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) "has the upper hand," according to the cable.
The document summarized meetings between U.S. officials and senior members of Israel's National Security Council, Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday and Thursday.
"Despite the assessment, Israeli officials said they hoped for a popular revolt and urged the United States to prepare to support protesters if that happens," the cable said.
Israel also expected the assassination of the supreme leader last month to sow "more chaos" within the regime in the immediate aftermath, according to the cable. But in recent days, the Islamic Republic's hold on power has been evident in its ability to continue launching ballistic missiles and drones "everywhere they want to," Israeli officials told U.S. diplomats.
Israeli officials said Mojtaba Khamenei, despite reports he was wounded in an airstrike, is "still in charge" and "more aligned" with IRGC hard-liners than his father, according to the cable. They speculated that the regime might moderate its views if the new supreme leader were killed but noted it was "stubborn" and would have to be "taken down from within."
Netanyahu, speaking at Israel's Defense Ministry complex "Kirya" alongside Defense Minister Israel Katz, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Mossad Director David Barnea, referenced the killings of National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani, and called on Iranians to take to the streets ahead of Nowruz.
"Keep celebrating. We are watching from above," Netanyahu said, calling for mass demonstrations and telling Iranians to "come out to the streets—we will protect you."
In a separate video message, Netanyahu said the strikes on Iran were giving its people "a chance to overthrow" the government.
"We dealt a blow to the Tehran regime and gave the Iranian people a chance to topple it. It is not easy and not done in one shot, but if they persist, it can happen, and we will give the Iranian people a chance at freedom," he said.
Netanyahu also said he held a long phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday and that the two countries are working in coordination.
Trump initially urged Iranians to "take over your government," but has recently acknowledged the difficulty of protesting under armed suppression.
"They literally have people in the streets with machine guns, machine-gunning people down if they want to protest. I really think that's a big hurdle to climb for people that don't have weapons," Trump told Fox News.
A White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a leaked cable, said Trump "doesn't like to see suffering anywhere, including in Iran."
Speaking to Post, Narges Bajoghli, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, said the dual messaging revealed in the cable will be viewed by many Iranians as "callous and exploitative."
"I think a lot of people will feel very betrayed by this assessment," Bajoghli said.
She added that Israel's push for an uprising regardless of the fatalities is consistent with a decades-long effort to cause the "fragmentation of Iran" and "state collapse."
"One of the ways of achieving that is creating more opportunities in which the guns of the state get turned onto the population. The goal is not creating a liberal democracy for the Iranian people. It's widening the chasm between the society and the state," Bajoghli noted.
Speaking to Post, Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the vulnerability of unarmed protesters should be a key consideration.
"The Iranian people are at grave risk at the moment from the regime, and it would be unfortunate if they were used as pawns in an effort to try to further inflame the situation," she said.
Maloney also said she was surprised by Israel's miscalculation of the regime's resilience.
"That really badly informed assumption is interesting, given how impressive Israeli intelligence penetration of Iran has been. It obviously lies at the root of the strategic miscalculation that Israel and the U.S. together blundered into," she said.
Israel and the U.S. have hit thousands of targets inside Iran, including nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile stockpiles, police stations and Basij checkpoints.
Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Gulf countries hosting U.S. military assets.
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