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The Pentagon acknowledged in closed-door congressional briefings that no intelligence suggested Iran planned to attack U.S. forces first, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters, undercutting a key justification for the massive U.S.-Israeli military operation now underway.
Trump administration officials made the admission during over 90 minutes of briefings with Democratic and Republican staff of several national security committees in both the Senate and the House of Representatives on Sunday, White House spokesperson Dylan Johnson said.
In the briefings, administration officials emphasized that Iran's ballistic missiles and proxy forces in the region posed an imminent threat to U.S. interests, but there was no intelligence about Tehran attacking U.S. forces first, the two sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
The remarks appeared to contradict what senior administration officials told reporters the day before, that U.S. President Donald Trump decided to launch the attacks in part because of indicators that Iranians might strike U.S. forces in the Middle East "perhaps preemptively."
Trump, one of the officials said, was not going to "sit back and allow American forces in the region to absorb attacks."
The United States and Israel launched their "most ambitious" attacks on Iran in decades on Saturday, Feb. 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sinking Iranian warships, and hitting more than 1,000 targets, officials said.
Trump said the attack, which is expected to run for weeks, aimed to ensure Iran could not have a nuclear weapon, contain its missile program, and eliminate threats to the United States and its allies.
Democrats have accused Trump of waging a war of choice and have aimed at his arguments for abandoning peace talks that mediator Oman said still held promise.
Trump has argued, without presenting evidence, that Iran was on track to soon secure the ability to strike the United States with a ballistic missile.
"His missile claim was not backed by U.S. intelligence reports and appeared to be exaggerated," sources familiar with the reports told Reuters.
Questions about the justification for the war came as the U.S. military revealed the first American casualties of the conflict on Sunday.
Three U.S. troops were killed, and five seriously wounded, U.S. Central Command said, adding that several other U.S. troops suffered minor shrapnel injuries and concussions.
U.S. aircraft and warships have struck more than 1,000 Iranian targets since Trump ordered the start of major combat operations, the military said.
The strikes include B-2 stealth bombers dropping 2,000-lb (900-kg) bombs on hardened, underground Iranian missile facilities.
Following the killing of Khamenei, many senior U.S. officials remain skeptical that the military operation will lead to regime change in the near term, according to three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence speaking to Reuters.
"I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment ... and take back your country," Trump said on Sunday in a video posted on Truth Social.
"Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or equally hard-line clerics," two sources said.
One U.S. official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to voluntarily capitulate, in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.
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A separate U.S. intelligence agency noted there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
"Such defections would likely be a precondition of any successful revolution," according to three additional sources.
No officials consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran's government, which is buffeted by key personnel losses from ongoing U.S. and Israeli air strikes and is deeply unpopular following the January round of extraordinarily violent repression.
"But it is far from likely or even probable in the near term," they said.
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