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Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency chief Pawel Szota called Monday for the country to prepare as though an armed conflict with Russia were imminent, warning that the level of Russian aggression is "very high" and the risk of military confrontation "real."
"Today, taking into account the full spectrum of threats from the Kremlin, we must shape our mindset accordingly and in our day-to-day operations act as if an armed conflict with Russia were a near-term prospect," Szota told the Rzeczpospolita daily.
Szota said agency analysts believe Russia is capable of sustaining the war in Ukraine for years to come.
"Russia can continue the war for several more years," he said, arguing the Kremlin is prepared to sacrifice economic prosperity and domestic development to keep fighting.
"Putin will not give up this war because, especially domestically, he must present himself as the victor," he said.
Szota said the likelihood of a wider conflict depends largely on how the war in Ukraine ultimately ends, and noted that the Foreign Intelligence Agency's threat assessments align with those of NATO and allied intelligence services.
Szota said his agency expects Russia to continue testing NATO's resolve through ongoing provocations, pointing to incidents already observed in Poland.
"We assume that Russian provocations, testing NATO, what we are already observing for example in Poland, will certainly continue," he said, adding, "The Russians are observing our reactions."
He described a Russian attempt to seriously test NATO's resolve through a high-profile provocation against one of the Baltic states as "a real scenario."
Asked whether Russia could deploy unmarked troops, so-called "little green men," similar to those used during the 2014 seizure of Crimea, into Lithuania or Latvia, Szota said: "I would not rule out any scenario today."
Szota also defended Poland's decision to maintain direct communication channels with Belarusian security services despite strained relations between the two governments, arguing that intelligence contacts can achieve security objectives that diplomacy cannot.
"It is better to meet representatives of the Lukashenko regime, discuss issues and obtain benefits for Poland than passively watch Belarus being 'consumed' by Russia," he said.
The Belarusian government has released several political prisoners in recent months, including Polish-Belarusian activist and journalist Andrzej Poczobut, who was freed in a complex prisoner swap in April.
Poland, a NATO member bordering Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Moscow-allied Belarus, has been one of Ukraine's strongest military and political backers since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
Polish officials say the country's infrastructure and broader society have been targeted by Russian cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns. Moscow denies carrying out hostile actions against NATO countries.
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