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Satellite images recently reviewed by Egyptian experts indicate that Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam is still not operating at full generating capacity, with only a small number of turbines functioning and water flows prompting Egypt to open the Toshka Spillway to manage rising levels at the High Aswan Dam.
The images show that only a limited number of the dam’s upper turbines are currently functioning, with daily inflows estimated at around 50 million cubic meters, compared to approximately 100 million cubic meters discharged through the turbine gates.
Abbas Sharaki, professor of water resources at Cairo University, said the evidence suggests that the dam “has so far failed to generate the electricity Ethiopia needs,” while also confirming that water continues to flow downstream into Egypt.
He noted that the High Aswan Dam is currently receiving around 300 million cubic meters of water per day.
Sharaki told Al Arabiya that this imbalance in water flow prompted Egypt to open the Toshka Spillway on Nov. 22, after water levels at the High Dam approached its maximum elevation of 182 meters above sea level.
Satellite images, he added, also reveal agricultural areas within the Toshka project benefiting from the redirected water, underscoring that part of the excess flow has been used for irrigation. Nevertheless, he stressed that “the Ethiopian dam is still not operating efficiently.”
He further explained that Lake Nasser has reached its highest storage limit and is currently receiving around 300 million cubic meters per day from all Nile tributaries—the Blue Nile, the White Nile and the Atbara River.
This has compelled Egypt’s Ministry of Irrigation to divert roughly 150 million cubic meters per day through the Toshka Spillway, while an equivalent amount is allocated to daily national consumption, including drinking water, agriculture and industry.
Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Nasr Allam argued that Ethiopia’s handling of the project “clearly reflects mismanagement,” saying Addis Ababa appears intent on storing the maximum possible amount of water—an approach that led to sudden releases despite downstream reservoirs being full. He said Egypt had no choice but to open the Toshka Spillway to prevent flooding.
Ethiopia announced the completion of the dam in July 2025 and held an official inauguration in September, asserting that the project “poses no threat” and represents a “shared opportunity” for regional development.
Cairo and Khartoum, however, have denounced what they describe as unilateral Ethiopian actions, viewing the dam as a threat to regional water security, particularly as Egypt relies on the Nile for 97% of its water supply.
Tensions among the three countries remain unresolved. Egypt and Sudan continue to call for a legally binding agreement governing the dam’s operation and for logical mechanisms to monitor Nile hydrology to mitigate the risks of drought or uncoordinated water releases.
In recent days, Egypt has stepped up preparations for possible responses to the dam’s impacts, amid what officials describe as Ethiopia’s “chaotic and unrestrained management.”
Government sources say Cairo has outlined a “clear technical framework” to counter potential risks as part of broader measures to safeguard national water and economic security and ensure the stability of the country’s water system.
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