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Spain's governing Socialists were heading toward a historic electoral collapse in Andalusia on Sunday, with exit polls predicting a sweeping victory for the conservative Popular Party that could foreshadow the country's 2027 general election.
An exit poll conducted for regional broadcaster Canal Sur projected that Andalusia's PP leader Juanma Moreno would secure up to 59 of the region's 109 seats, enough for an outright majority. The Socialists, led by former deputy prime minister and ex-finance minister Maria Jesus Montero, were forecast to win no more than 29 seats, which would mark a historic low for the party in a region it once dominated for nearly four decades.
Voter turnout stood above 52 percent by 6:00 p.m. local time, seven percentage points higher than in the 2022 election, with official results set to begin rolling in from 8:45 p.m. GMT.
Andalusia, home to nearly nine million people and accounting for roughly 18 percent of Spain's population, is the country's most populous region and carries outsized political symbolism. Famed for its Mediterranean coastline, Moorish architecture and historic cities including Seville, Granada and Cordoba, the sun-drenched southern region was a Socialist bastion for almost 40 years before the PP broke through in 2019.
In Spain's decentralized political system, regional governments hold broad authority over health, education and housing, making Andalusia's outcome far more than a local matter.
Moreno himself acknowledged the national stakes. "What happens in Andalusia clearly determines other things as well," he told journalists after casting his ballot in the coastal city of Malaga, calling his region "a highly unique land with huge weight."
The projected result delivers another blow to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has faced a string of regional defeats in recent months, with the left losing in Extremadura, Aragon and Castile and Leon. Corruption investigations involving family members and former senior political allies have weighed on his domestic standing, even as his confrontations with U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel have raised his profile internationally.
Montero's expected poor showing in her home region adds a personal dimension to the setback for Sanchez.
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The far-right Vox party was projected to hold its ground but fall short of the leverage it wielded after the three previous regional votes, where it played a kingmaker role. The PP has since entered coalition governments with Vox in both Extremadura and Aragon, and has not ruled out cooperation at the national level should the 2027 general election produce an inconclusive result.
That stance has set the PP apart from most mainstream conservative parties across Europe, which have largely maintained what is known as a "sanitary cordon" against governing alongside far-right movements, a position that continues to draw scrutiny from analysts and rivals alike.
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