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Türkiye and Saudi Arabia can contribute to a diplomatic settlement of the situation around Iran, prominent Turkish columnist Abdulkadir Selvi wrote in Hurriyet on Tuesday, as the debate shifts from whether the United States will strike Iran to when such an attack might occur.
Selvi claimed that U.S. President Donald Trump has conveyed a five-point proposal to Iran:
"The debate over whether the U.S. will strike Iran has given way to expectations of when the U.S. will strike Iran," Selvi wrote.
"Israel continues to provoke the United States to strike Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanting Iran struck every night," according to the column. However, Trump reportedly has another plan, giving diplomacy a chance while waiting for conditions to mature.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who initiated dialogue between the two countries through mediation on the night expectations of a US strike on Iran peaked, made a critical assessment, Selvi reported.
Fidan said Iran is ready for negotiations but must be offered an "honorable exit."
"My advice to American friends is this: Don't turn this into another Venezuela. Iran is ready for negotiations, but you need to find the right negotiation path that won't damage their reputation. If they feel cornered, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario," Fidan warned, according to Selvi.
Selvi explained Fidan's Venezuela reference, noting a scenario under discussion in which the U.S. reportedly does not plan to change the Iranian regime entirely but rather to topple or force out Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and install moderates from within the regime.
This approach, inspired by plans to replace Venezuela's Maduro with his deputy Rodriguez, is being called the "Rodrigez model," Selvi wrote.
"The faction supported by Israel reportedly wants to launch a popular uprising simultaneously with U.S. bombardment to overthrow the Iranian regime, with influence agents actively involved," according to the column.
Selvi noted this calculation may be flawed, as the Iranian people might rally around the regime if their country is attacked.
"I am among those who think a political solution is still possible. Only President Erdogan can extract Iran from this pressure it has entered. Türkiye and Saudi Arabia can achieve this," Selvi wrote.
Türkiye is Iran's most stable neighbor, and Iran's stability is seen as Türkiye's stability, according to the column.
Selvi questioned whether Iran can emerge from this process through military measures or political solutions, noting that while the Revolutionary Guards publish new videos daily, if such video wars could prevent conflict, Israel and America would no longer exist on the world map.
"The realities on the ground are not like those in videos," Selvi warned.
"In the first week of January, a U.S. strike on Iran was on the agenda," Selvi recalled. Trump announced that the plan to strike Iran was postponed due to trusted friends intervening and claimed he "prevented 800 executions."
"Who were those friends?" Selvi asked.
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