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Heat waves that gripped Western Europe this summer pushed the June–July average temperature past the previous record set in 2022, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Extreme heat that began in May triggered large wildfires across the continent, prolonged drought and new national temperature records in several countries. Thousands of people may have died as a result of the heat waves, according to estimates.
Europe's earlier heat waves illustrate the scale of the risk. An analysis found the 2022 summer heat was linked to an estimated 61,672 deaths across 35 European countries, while a separate study put the 2024 toll at more than 62,700 heat-related deaths—indicating existing adaptation measures may still be falling short as temperatures continue to climb.
Copernicus data shows 2026 currently ranks as the third-hottest year on record globally, behind only 2024 and 2025. Scientists expect temperatures to climb further over the remainder of the year as human-driven climate change combines with strong El Nino conditions, raising the likelihood that 2026 could still overtake 2024 as the hottest year on record.
El Nino is a recurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It tends to push up average global temperatures for a year or more after it develops, adding to warming already driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
Average sea surface temperatures outside polar regions reached 20.96 degrees Celsius (69.7 degrees Fahrenheit) in July, the highest level recorded for that month and above the previous July record of 20.89 degrees Celsius set in 2023.
Copernicus attributed the record ocean temperatures partly to developing El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
Samantha Burgess, climate strategy lead at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, told AP that long-lasting high-pressure systems trapped hot air over the region, worsening widespread drought.
Burgess said drying soil loses its natural cooling capacity, making it easier for heat to build up. She said the pattern observed in Europe illustrates how climate change intensifies extreme heat, with rising temperatures and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.
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