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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Sunday that battlefield developments show Russia “is not winning and will not win this war,” citing slower Russian advances, heavy troop losses and increased Ukrainian long-range strikes.
Citing publicly available sources, Sybiha said Russia’s average advance in 2026 was 3.5 times slower than in 2025 and that Moscow had captured less than 0.2% of additional Ukrainian territory this year.
He said the net difference between territory captured by Russia and territory retaken by Ukraine in August was about 5 square kilometers.
Sybiha also said 42,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded in August, describing it as “one of the highest monthly casualty rates of the war.”
Ukraine carried out a record 70 successful long-range strikes against what Sybiha described as legitimate military targets in Russia during August, five more than in the previous year.
“Given the situation in the Russian economy and its inability to counter Ukraine’s long-range sanctions, things will only get worse for Russia,” Sybiha wrote on X.
In Donbas, he said Russia had failed to achieve an operational breakthrough and still did not control 20% of the Donetsk region despite concentrating most of its efforts there.
“At its current pace, it would take the Russian occupiers over two years to capture that remaining land,” he said.
Sybiha acknowledged that victory would be difficult for Ukraine but argued that Moscow “is not in a strong position either” and is “not in a position to dictate terms.”
“Whatever fabricated maps Russian generals present to Putin, the reality on the ground shows that he is not winning and will not win this war,” he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russian forces were increasing the pace of their advance.
Putin said Moscow captured 270 square kilometers, or 104 square miles, of territory and 15 settlements in Ukraine’s Donetsk region during August.
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