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U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned Friday that Russia could attack a NATO country as soon as 2030, citing Western intelligence assessments, as he pledged to publish Britain’s long-delayed defense investment plan before next month’s NATO summit in Türkiye.
Starmer made the remarks during a visit to a drone manufacturer in southwest England, saying the assessment was shared by the U.K. and other NATO countries.
“It is our intelligence assessment and the assessment of other countries in NATO that there could be an attack by Russia on NATO as soon as 2030,” Starmer said.
“So you can see the urgency and the priority that we’re putting behind this now,” he added.
Starmer said his government would publish a 10-year defense investment plan before the NATO summit in Türkiye, which begins on July 7.
The plan follows a review of the U.K.’s defense capabilities and had been expected late last year, but has not yet been released.
U.K. media reported that the delay was linked to disagreements between the finance ministry and other departments over the cost.
Starmer said the plan would be “fully funded.”
He has pledged to raise defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product from next year, with a further increase to 3% in the next parliament.
Starmer’s warning echoes similar timelines given by other European leaders and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who warned in December that Russia “could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.”
Earlier Friday, Britain’s military chief also warned that the country must strengthen its defenses in response to threats from Russia, which invaded Ukraine more than four years ago.
“In my 35-year career, this is the most dangerous period that I have known,” Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton told the BBC.
He said Britain needed to improve the capability and readiness of its armed forces alongside allies “to deter our adversaries from doing something daft.”
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged NATO members to spend more on defense and become less reliant on Washington for security.
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