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The United States has warned Poland that Russia may stage a limited armed provocation on Polish territory in an effort to test NATO's response and weaken Western support for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported Friday.
Washington has issued several warnings to Warsaw about possible Russian plans, according to sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki who spoke to Polish news outlet Onet. The Telegraph and Onet are both part of Axel Springer's Global Reporters Network.
The reported scenarios include missile or drone attacks on critical infrastructure, simulated airstrikes or a limited incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops.
The operation could take place within months and would be designed to escalate tensions without triggering a full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO, the report said.
One Polish intelligence source said an extreme scenario could involve a "hybrid attack in the border region," including Russian or Belarusian soldiers crossing into Polish territory.
Moscow could portray such an incursion as accidental, claiming troops crossed the border because of a GPS failure or entered Poland to retrieve a malfunctioning helicopter, according to the report.
Russia could then seek negotiations rather than a military response, betting that the United States would pressure Poland not to open fire on Russian or Belarusian personnel.
The withdrawal of Russian forces following negotiations could be presented by Moscow as a victory, while an end to Western military assistance for Ukraine could be raised as a condition for leaving Polish territory, the report said.
A source close to Nawrocki said the United States regularly informs Poland about new Russian plans for possible conventional attacks against NATO's eastern flank.
An ambassador from another NATO member state, a Polish Defense Ministry source and a Baltic security official also confirmed that a provocation targeting Poland or one of the Baltic states was considered a serious risk, according to The Telegraph.
The Baltic security source said such plans had been discussed in Moscow. Russia could also attempt to blame Ukraine for an attack, the report said.
A ground incursion could be launched from Belarus or Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, both of which border Poland.
The report said Russia's military commitments in Ukraine meant Moscow did not currently have the capacity to wage a full-scale war against NATO. A limited provocation was therefore viewed as a more realistic option.
Such an operation could seek to undermine Polish sovereignty, expose divisions within NATO and force Western countries to reduce or end support for Ukraine without prompting a wider war, The Telegraph reported.
A senior Polish Defense Ministry official confirmed to Onet that a Russian provocation was possible but said Poland had conducted exercises intended to demonstrate that such an attack would prompt a devastating NATO response.
Polish security sources stressed that Moscow had not made a final decision and that any potential operation would not resemble a conventional invasion.
The Telegraph also reported that NATO could respond to an attack by striking targets in Kaliningrad.
German air force chief Holger Neumann said last month that Germany would defend "every inch" of NATO territory, including Poland, if the alliance were forced to act defensively.
Russia and Ukraine on Friday accused each other of overnight strikes that killed at least six people and injured 22 others on both sides.
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its forces shot down 179 drones overnight across the country, in annexed Crimea and over the Azov and Black seas.
In Russia's Bryansk region, one person was killed and two others injured in what regional Gov. Yegor Kovalchuk described as a "suicide drone" attack.
Belgorod Gov. Aleksandr Shuvaev said one person was killed and another injured in a missile attack on the region.
He said the attack also damaged energy infrastructure, causing power and water outages in several municipalities.
"Power companies are working diligently to address the damage quickly; water and power will be restored by the end of the day," he wrote on Max.
Ukraine's General Staff said Moscow launched 105 drones and two guided missiles, with 82 drones and one missile intercepted.
In Ukraine's Sumy region, four people were killed and three others injured in a Russian drone strike on an apartment building, regional Gov. Oleh Hryhorov said on Telegram.
Ten people were injured in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where the attack damaged civilian infrastructure and several vehicles, Gov. Oleksandr Hanzha said.
In the Kharkiv region, six people were injured, including three children, Ukraine's State Emergency Service said.
In Kyiv, the death toll from an earlier Russian attack rose to 30, according to Ukraine's State Emergency Service.
"Three more bodies have been recovered," the agency said on Facebook.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 10 people remained missing as emergency and rescue operations continued. Nearly 100 people were injured, including children, he said.
Zelenskyy urged Ukraine's partners to provide stronger air defense support.
"Every day and every night, the Russians strike ordinary civilian infrastructure, and terror is the only argument they have left for not stopping the war," he said.
Ukraine said Thursday that Russia had launched 74 missiles and 496 drones overnight, with Kyiv as the main target.
It said 25 ballistic missiles and 12 attack drones struck targets at 33 locations, while falling debris was reported at 18 sites.
Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces used long-range precision weapons launched from the air, sea and land, as well as drones, to strike defense industry enterprises and fuel and energy facilities in Kyiv and the surrounding region.
The claims could not be independently verified because of the ongoing war.
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