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Goldman Sachs revealed on Monday its updated exchange rate projections for the Turkish lira, predicting that the U.S. dollar will climb to 45 against the lira over the next 12 months.
The forecast, shared in a recent note, sets USD/TRY targets at 41 in three months, 43 in six months, and 45 by mid-2026.
Despite the depreciation trend, the U.S-based investment bank’s projections remain more moderate than those of local institutions. According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s June Survey of Market Participants, the average year-end USD/TRY forecast was 43.57, with the 12-month outlook reaching 47.04.
The Turkish lira traded steadily on Monday, closing at 40.1740, slightly above the previous session. As of 08:20 GMT on Tuesday, the lira weakened to 40.2194 against the dollar, marking a 0.3% daily loss.
The U.S. dollar has gained 13.80% against the Turkish lira year-to-date, even though average Turkish lira deposit rates for three-month maturities exceeded 55%. This comes during a period when the U.S. Dollar Index declined by more than 11% in the first half of 2025, its worst performance for the period since 1973.
Attention now turns to the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of Türkiye’s central bank, scheduled for July 24.
The meeting is expected to influence the short-term trajectory of the USD/TRY exchange rate, as the market expects the central bank to resume interest rate cuts, with forecasts ranging from 250 to 350 basis points from the current 46% policy rate.
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