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Türkiye's market participants raised their inflation forecasts for August and the end of the year, while their expectations for interest rate cuts shifted further out, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (CBRT) August Market Participants Survey.
The survey, which included 68 participants from the real and financial sectors and professional groups, showed that the expected monthly increase in consumer prices for August rose to 1.7% from 1.4% in the previous survey. The forecast implied annual inflation of 31.3%, down from 31.8% in the previous month.
Participants also expected the CBRT to keep its policy rate at 37% at its first meeting, scheduled for Sept. The outlook differed from the July survey, when some participants expected the central bank to resume rate cuts at its September meeting.
The year-end consumer inflation forecast increased to 29.4% from 29.2%, while the 24-month forecast rose to 18% from 17.8%. The 12-month inflation forecast, meanwhile, fell to 23.7% from 24%.
The CBRT is expected to resume its rate-cut cycle as early as October, with the policy rate forecast at around 36.1% and 35.25% at subsequent meetings.
The year-end dollar/Turkish lira forecast also increased to 51.6567 from 51.5537, while the 12-month forecast climbed to 57.4278 from 56.6920.
Participants also raised their current account deficit forecast for this year to $50.2 billion from $49.3 billion. Their forecast for next year increased to $44.4 billion from $43.3 billion.
In June, Türkiye's 12-month rolling current account deficit was recorded at $38.9 billion, the central bank reported this week.
The survey showed that the growth forecast for the current year remained unchanged at 3.1%, down from 3.6% a year earlier. The forecast for next year, however, fell to 4% from 4.1%.
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