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Türkiye's foreign trade deficit is on track to reach $120 billion by the end of 2026, up $27.9 billion, or 30.3%, from $92.1 billion at the end of 2025, with energy remaining the biggest driver of the country's trade imbalance, according to a new report by local brokerage firm Ata Invest.
The brokerage projects exports will rise to $280 billion this year from $273.4 billion in 2025, an increase of $6.6 billion, or 2.4%, while imports are expected to climb to $400 billion from $365.5 billion, up $34.5 billion, or 9.4%, bringing the export-to-import coverage ratio down to 70% from 74.8%.
Drawing on July 2026 data from the Trade Ministry and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Ata Invest found that energy continued to weigh heavily on Türkiye's trade balance, with net energy imports totaling $4.5 billion in July and accounting for 61% of the month's trade deficit.
Beyond energy, machinery accounted for 20% of the trade deficit, followed by durable consumer goods and electronics at 14% and iron and steel at 10.3%, while the automotive sector and other categories posted trade surpluses.
The wider trade gap was driven by a $677.2 million, or 13.2%, increase in energy imports, which climbed to $5.8 billion in July from $5.2 billion a year earlier, alongside a $1.3 billion widening in the deficit across other categories, the report added.
Türkiye's foreign trade deficit reached $60.5 billion in the first seven months of 2026, while energy imports climbed to $40.1 billion, up $2.7 billion, or 7.2%, from $37.4 billion in the same period last year.
On a rolling 12-month basis, the trade deficit widened to $96.8 billion, 9.5% higher than $88.3 billion a year earlier.
The brokerage emphasized that Türkiye's export-to-import coverage ratio fell 173 basis points year-on-year to 77.7% in July, warning that an export-to-import coverage ratio below the historical 65% threshold could put additional pressure on the country's current account balance.
Türkiye posted a $1.5 billion current account deficit in May 2026, while the rolling 12-month deficit stood at $32.8 billion, according to the latest central bank data.
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